Week 5 picks: Clemson/Louisville is going to be FUN

You should probably never trust a person who can’t count with your money.

There are exceptions, of course. Like me, for instance. Last week. I only picked six games instead of seven, because, um, reasons? But, I did go 4-2, so we’re back to being winners, and that’s a great feeling.

I’m going back to seven this week, because I love you. Or because I feel I should probably jump back to my original number. Either way, thanks for reading.

Texas at Oklahoma State (-2.5)

Between Notre Dame’s awfulness and the loss to Cal, I’ve lost almost all faith in Texas this season. I don’t have much more faith in Oklahoma State, but give me the home team in this situation when it’s giving up less than a field goal. Pick: Oklahoma State.

To Fade or Not to Fade

I think opening weekend Texas and what we thought of them is long in the rear-view mirror. The Pokes would be undefeated if not for a series of horrible refereeing decisions. A field goal win is good enough here. Pick: Not to Fade

Tennessee (-3.5) at Georgia

We’ve told you about Georgia and how it’s not good. This line is a Tennessee hangover line, as Vegas is figuring the Vols coming off a huge win against Florida could give people some pause. Not me. I think that win energizes Tennessee, which will open a brutal October stretch with a cover. Pick: Tennessee.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Dawgs win outright [hides]

Pick: To Fade

Wisconsin at Michigan (-10.5)

The Badgers are coming off a beatdown of Michigan State, but so much of that score was based on turnovers and general poor quarterback play. I’m not saying that Wilton Speight isn’t capable of having a bad game -- this will be his first game against a decent defense -- but I think Tyler O’Connor’s struggles were more on O’Connor than they were on the Wisconsin defense. Michigan is rolling, and right now only Mark Dantonio magic or Ohio State can stop them. Pick: Michigan.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Michigan is a playoff contender. They're very good and this line seems huge. When two closely ranked teams have a spread like this, it should make you raise an eyebrow. Think Alabama being Favored against MSU by 12.5 in the playoff last year. Pick: Not to Fade

Oklahoma (-3.5) at TCU

Oklahoma has slipped out of the top 25 after losses to two top 10 teams. Sure, the Ohio State loss was a mauling and the non-ranking is justified, but I don’t think the Sooners are a non-top 25-caliber team. Apparently, neither does Vegas. Bob Stoops got a week to recuperate, and the Sooners are much more comfortable when not everyone is in love with them. ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, Oklahoma’s defense is bad, and the offense -- especially the passing game -- also struggles. This game is going to be a shootout, and I think it’s decided either way on the last possession. Pick: TCU.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Oklahoma is the most overrated team in America and DID YOU SEE THOSE TCU HELMETS MY GOD ARE THOSE LIT. Pick: Not to Fade

Utah at California (-2)

Um, what? Pick: Utah.

To Fade or Not to Fade:

You guys, this line stinks to high heaven. I'm afraid Utah is a sucker bet this week, and our good friend Paul fell for it. (Sorry, pal, you're really good at this and doing a good job for the people please don't bring up our head-to-head record last week.) Pick: To Fade

Western Michigan (-3.5) at Central Michigan

Don’t bet with your heart, Paul. Don’t bet with your heart, Paul. Don’t bet with your heart, Paul. Fuck it. Fuck the Broncos. Pick: Central Michigan.

To Fade or Not to Fade

I've met plenty of CMU Chippewas in my life and if there's one thing I've learned about them and their campus, it's that you don't go there and leave unscathed. Ever. Pick: Not to Fade.

Louisville (-2) at Clemson

Lamar Jackson is basically a god, and Louisville is justifiably America’s darling early in the season. But now it’s October, and this is Clemson at night. Deshaun Watson will be out to prove something, and Clemson’s defense is better than Florida State’s. Pick: Clemson.

To Fade or Not to Fade

So this line is tough, because if we take away home field advantage (typically 3 pts) than Vegas thinks Louisville is 5 points better than Clemson. BUT, this line is not an honest line. No, this line has been pushed and pushed and pushed by the public. Clemson was a favorite and so much money was put on Louisville by the public that the line switched sides completely. Take those 2 points now before the line switches back tomorrow when the sharps load up on Clemson. Always side with the late money. Pick: Not to Fade