Week 5 picks: Clemson/Louisville is going to be FUN

You should probably never trust a person who can’t count with your money.

There are exceptions, of course. Like me, for instance. Last week. I only picked six games instead of seven, because, um, reasons? But, I did go 4-2, so we’re back to being winners, and that’s a great feeling.

I’m going back to seven this week, because I love you. Or because I feel I should probably jump back to my original number. Either way, thanks for reading.

Texas at Oklahoma State (-2.5)

Between Notre Dame’s awfulness and the loss to Cal, I’ve lost almost all faith in Texas this season. I don’t have much more faith in Oklahoma State, but give me the home team in this situation when it’s giving up less than a field goal. Pick: Oklahoma State.

To Fade or Not to Fade

I think opening weekend Texas and what we thought of them is long in the rear-view mirror. The Pokes would be undefeated if not for a series of horrible refereeing decisions. A field goal win is good enough here. Pick: Not to Fade

Tennessee (-3.5) at Georgia

We’ve told you about Georgia and how it’s not good. This line is a Tennessee hangover line, as Vegas is figuring the Vols coming off a huge win against Florida could give people some pause. Not me. I think that win energizes Tennessee, which will open a brutal October stretch with a cover. Pick: Tennessee.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Dawgs win outright [hides]

Pick: To Fade

Wisconsin at Michigan (-10.5)

The Badgers are coming off a beatdown of Michigan State, but so much of that score was based on turnovers and general poor quarterback play. I’m not saying that Wilton Speight isn’t capable of having a bad game -- this will be his first game against a decent defense -- but I think Tyler O’Connor’s struggles were more on O’Connor than they were on the Wisconsin defense. Michigan is rolling, and right now only Mark Dantonio magic or Ohio State can stop them. Pick: Michigan.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Michigan is a playoff contender. They're very good and this line seems huge. When two closely ranked teams have a spread like this, it should make you raise an eyebrow. Think Alabama being Favored against MSU by 12.5 in the playoff last year. Pick: Not to Fade

Oklahoma (-3.5) at TCU

Oklahoma has slipped out of the top 25 after losses to two top 10 teams. Sure, the Ohio State loss was a mauling and the non-ranking is justified, but I don’t think the Sooners are a non-top 25-caliber team. Apparently, neither does Vegas. Bob Stoops got a week to recuperate, and the Sooners are much more comfortable when not everyone is in love with them. ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, Oklahoma’s defense is bad, and the offense -- especially the passing game -- also struggles. This game is going to be a shootout, and I think it’s decided either way on the last possession. Pick: TCU.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Oklahoma is the most overrated team in America and DID YOU SEE THOSE TCU HELMETS MY GOD ARE THOSE LIT. Pick: Not to Fade

Utah at California (-2)

Um, what? Pick: Utah.

To Fade or Not to Fade:

You guys, this line stinks to high heaven. I'm afraid Utah is a sucker bet this week, and our good friend Paul fell for it. (Sorry, pal, you're really good at this and doing a good job for the people please don't bring up our head-to-head record last week.) Pick: To Fade

Western Michigan (-3.5) at Central Michigan

Don’t bet with your heart, Paul. Don’t bet with your heart, Paul. Don’t bet with your heart, Paul. Fuck it. Fuck the Broncos. Pick: Central Michigan.

To Fade or Not to Fade

I've met plenty of CMU Chippewas in my life and if there's one thing I've learned about them and their campus, it's that you don't go there and leave unscathed. Ever. Pick: Not to Fade.

Louisville (-2) at Clemson

Lamar Jackson is basically a god, and Louisville is justifiably America’s darling early in the season. But now it’s October, and this is Clemson at night. Deshaun Watson will be out to prove something, and Clemson’s defense is better than Florida State’s. Pick: Clemson.

To Fade or Not to Fade

So this line is tough, because if we take away home field advantage (typically 3 pts) than Vegas thinks Louisville is 5 points better than Clemson. BUT, this line is not an honest line. No, this line has been pushed and pushed and pushed by the public. Clemson was a favorite and so much money was put on Louisville by the public that the line switched sides completely. Take those 2 points now before the line switches back tomorrow when the sharps load up on Clemson. Always side with the late money. Pick: Not to Fade

Fantasy week 4: DFS picks - Make John Brown Great Again

Hello. Here are some daily fantasy plays I like this week.

Cash Games: 50/50s, Head-to-Head, Double-Ups - We want high floors and plays with a lot of volume for good value.

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton - Carolina at Atlanta is--quite surprisingly--the 2nd highest Vegas total this weekend, meaning the folks in the desert are banking on some points being score. The Panthers run game is on crutches with Jonathan Stewart out and Newton made news this week by guaranteeing top wideout Kelvin Benjamin wouldn't go without a catch again this week. The Panthers should score a decent amount and it's a safe bet that Cam will be the producer of those scores.

Philip Rivers - You can play him in tournaments stacked with a Chargers receiver because the Saints D is just that bad and he has huge upside to go with a high floor. This game--unsurprisingly--has the highest Vegas point total this week and Rivers might be the most common play in cash games. So playing him just to keep up with the neighbors is a smart play, especially if he goes off.

Kirk Cousins - Another good value this week with Washington hosting the lowly Browns. He's another guy you could stack with a Washington receiver to play in tournaments. Cousins has thrown for almost 1,000 yards already and is a good bet to throw multiple touchdown passes and reach the 300 yard bonus. Ryan Tannehill just threw for 319 and 3 TDs against Cleveland last weekend.

Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell - The best non-David Johnson fantasy running back in the league has returned and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said Bell will immediately get a heavy workload and Ben Roethelisberger said Bell will see snaps at receiver this week. He has huge volume and catches passes which makes him an always solid cash game play.

Melvin Gordon - He'll be the most owned running back this week and you should have him in all of your cash game lineups.

LeGarrette Blount - This is the last chance to use him before Brady gets back and the Patriots start throwing the ball more. His volume, 25 carries per game, makes him a safe choice with a high floor. He's got 4 TDs through 3 games and it would come of no surprise to see him there again this weekend.

Jordan Howard - He's here because his price tag is so low. He's the only healthy back with talent on Chicago right now. The Lions do have a decent run defense, but are missing some pieces at linebacker this week. He's a good value play so you can pay up for an elite running back like David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins - He owns the Titans. The lowest yardage total he has posted against them in the last two season is 94 and he has 4 TDs in his last 4 games against them. He also has a very favorable matchup according to ESPN's Mike Clay (Clay's CB/WR matchup articles are worth the price of Insider alone). His high upside makes him a strong tournament play as well.

Julian Edelman - Edelman has 23 targets this year, good for a whopping 27% target share. I'm inclined to believe he gets in the end zone this week to go with his standard 7 or so catches and 70 yards. In his last 2 games against Buffalo he has 20 catches for 188 yard and 2 TDs.

Terrelle Pryor - He's the value play this weekend at WR. He'll be very heavily owned as his price tag is yet to adjust fully to the points he's been putting up. And Josh Gordon just went to rehab to go with Corey Coleman breaking his hand, so this might be your last shot to get Pryor at a value price.

Tight Ends

Zach Miller - The Lions have been brutal against the tight end and Miller's low price tag makes him a safe pick.

Hunter Henry - He'll be very heavily owned with his bottom-of-the-barrel price tag. Henry had a nice week in his first start with Antonio Gates out, catching all 5 of his targets for 92 yards. Annnnnnnd, oh yeah, he's going against that Saints D.

Greg Olsen - Aside from a healthy Gronk, Olsen is the safest TE play in the league. The Falcons are the worst in the league against the TE in fantasy points allowed.

D/ST

So this week the Cardinals, Seahawks and Broncos all play against a bottom 5 offensive team and are probably the safest options in a cash game lineup and have high upside for the tournament route. Houston gets Tennessee at home and the Titans are the second friendliest offense to opposing fantasy defenses, but JJ Watt being out has some concerned. I still think they're a good option. I'd go with any of the four above listed teams and play it safe this week in cash games.

Tournaments: We need guys to go off and a lot of them. Some will be studs and some will be guys that are more risk/reward situations. Players with upside and low ownership numbers are key.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco - This play is contingent on a stack with Steve Smith and if you're going to use this lineup, use it sparingly knowing that it could come back to bite you. Flacco is one of the cheaper options this week and using him gives you freedom to spend on other positions. He's going against the 30th ranked Raiders passing D for fantasy scoring, which gives him big upside.

Brian Hoyer - I think his ownership will be really, really low and the Lions have been absolutely shredded through the air this year. I like a stack with him and Kevin White as a high risk-high reward play in tournaments.

Matt Ryan - He's here because the high Vegas total for this game leads me to believe that the Falcons are going to score, and Carolina is giving up only 3.4 yards/carry this year, 6th in the NFL. I think ATL gets something going here, perhaps in garbage time. Heck, the 49ers put up 27 on Carolina in Carolina.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray - Just wanted to let you know Murray is averaging 6 yards/carry to go with 17 receptions in three games. His rushing volume hasn't been huge, but he's got a high floor and I think he'll have low ownership this week thanks in part to Melvin Gordon and Bell's return. If he gets 20 carries to go with his 5 or 6 catches, he could be in line for a huge day.

Carlos Hyde - He's another guy with an ownership % that will be super low. For some reason nobody has noticed his production through 3 weeks. He's in line for 20 carries every week and has been catching a couple passes every game this year. San Francisco runs the most plays per game in the NFL and for them to be successful, it has to go through Hyde. He's a top 7 DFS running back this year, but is around 30 in price tag.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones - Same reasons as Matt Ryan is in here. The consensus has been this week to skip playing your Atlanta Falcons, so a big Julio week can really pay dividends in a tournament format. His targets are down this year, but with Sanu out and Atlanta having trouble running the ball, I could see a 15+ target game for Jones this week.

Tavon Austin - His target share is a monstrous 32% which means his stats should probably be better than they are. He's obviously a home run hitter and can win you a tournament if you happen to play him in one of his 2 TD games that he puts together twice every year. If I'm using him, it's in very few lineups with the knowledge that he's the ultimate boom-or-bust. But, if he booms, you'll be the only one that has him.

Steve Smith Sr. - Low ownership %. Huge target share. The big concern is that despite being quite bad the first two weeks of the season, the Raiders back end was great last week and has Pro Football Focus's highest rated CB in David Amerson. There's definite risk here, but there could be a big reward.

Kevin White - He'll be line up against Nevin Lawson who is 90-something in coverage among CBs. So, he's the worst 3rd cornerback in the NFL, essentially, and he'll be shadowing White this week. White has 27 targets this year, including 14 last week, and against weaker competition like Lawson, he could be in for his breakout week.

John Brown - I just dearly love John Brown and want to see him be great again. Make John Brown Great Again! That's my official slogan for the week. His snap count has increased every game this year as he eases back from his preseason injuries. Michael Floyd's injury means Brown is in line for more targets and frankly I just want to see him burn somebody deep again.  And the Rams do have a good defense, but it's because they have a great front 7. The Cardinals will get a few deep shots out there. Here's hoping John Brown gets one. Make John Brown Great Again.

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate - I'll be honest, I'm probably more comfortable using the above listed Tight Ends for tournaments as well, because if they miss it won't kill me. I think Brate will be low-owned, because of pretty much that reason, and people will want to see that his 2 TD game wasn't a fluke. Brate had ten targets last week, so even if he doesn't score 2 TDs again, he has a good shot to improve on his 5 receptions. He's priced as low as you can go too.

Kyle Rudolph - Rudolph has quietly been a target monster this year and I just wanted to give him some shine. He has 26 targets in three games, but his catch % is lower than his career average currently. If he does something similar to what he did last week, he could be a steal.

D/ST

New York Jets - The Jets blitz a ton and stop the run. If they can keep Seattle's run game down, which I think they can, then they can get after Russell Wilson, who is dealing with a knee injury and has been significantly less mobile because of it. It's a 1:00 start in New York, so it isn't unreasonable to think the Seattle offense is a bit sluggish. And, I like good teams that just got tee'd off on the week prior like the Jets jut did.

Jacksonville - Total hunch. Division game at home. They need a win. I think Andrew Luck turns it over a few times and the Jags get home on some sacks while only give up 20 or so points. Total risk/reward here.

Week 4 Picks: We definitely have no idea what Michigan State is

A second straight 3-4 week means we are pretty close to no longer playing with house money, people.

It’s time to sack up and start picking winners again, which I thought was going to be really easy after going 6-1 in Week 1, but apparently Vegas knows what it’s doing.

Seriously, I always thought that if I had the guts (and up-front money) that I could make a pretty good side living off of betting on games. Clearly I’m not the only one who has had that idea, and while some manage to do OK, the buildings in Vegas aren’t abandoned yet, so most who had that thought failed.

Now that I’ve whined about how hard this is, here are more picks.

Wisconsin at Michigan State (-5)

These two have played some classics in recent years, and I expect this one will be fun, too. Wisconsin’s defense is much better than Notre Dame’s (which could be said about most any defense in the country. In fact, the pass rush robots Notre Dame practices with would be better than its current defense, and they don’t have arms). MSU’s offense is much better than LSU’s (I don’t know if LSU has robots, but I could use a very similar parenthetical here). So expect things on that side of the ball to meet in the middle. The difference here will be MSU’s defense and Wisconsin’s inability to take advantage of its weaknesses. Five is a tough number, but give me the Spartans by a TD. Pick: MSU

To Fade or Not to Fade: Hi, Wil here. I got jealous of Paul getting to do all of the college football picks so I forced my way into his work. Here I’ll give you some of my thoughts and whether or not I agree with Paul, or if I would fade his pick. Being the resident MSU expert in this duo, I feel I can contribute confidently on this pick. I have ZERO clue what MSU is. Good start, right? Let’s try to chronicle some things we do know. MSU wants to run the ball and can. Don’t let the points LSU didn’t score fool you, Leonard Fournette was productive. Akron even ran the ball well despite losing 54-10. So I think MSU can dictate the game when they’re on offense. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin is starting a redshirt Freshman and despite his success against Georgia State, well, MSU is not Georgia State. I think this line is where it’s at because Vegas doesn’t know quite what to do with MSU yet. I see this as a two score game, given Wisconsin’s injuries at RB and unproven passing game. Pick: Not to Fade

Georgia at Ole Miss (-6.5)

Somehow, Georgia’s 3-0 record is worse than Ole Miss’ 1-2 record. That makes sense, believe me. The Georgia offense, even with Nick Chubb back, is not great, and the Ole Miss defense is fast and better than its numbers would suggest. I think this could get ugly. Pick: Ole Miss

To Fade or Not to Fade: When a top 12 team is getting a touchdown against the 23rd ranked team, you lay those points. Don’t be fooled by the records, Ole Miss is significantly better than Georgia. This is a sucker line and Georgia is a sucker bet. Pick: Not to Fade.

Penn State at Michigan (-18.5)

A three TD spread in a conference game against a team with a winning record seems like a lot. But I really don’t see Penn State hanging around in this one. Not even a little bit. Michigan’s defense is going to swallow the Nittany Lions, and its offense is better than Pitt’s, which dropped 42 on Penn State. Pick: Michigan.

To Fade or Not to Fade: This line tells us a few things. Vegas really likes Michigan and Vegas knows what the public thinks of Penn State. The public is wrong more than they’re right. They didn’t build towers in the desert for nothing. Pick: To Fade.

Louisville (-27.5) at Marshall

Marshall just lost, at home, by 27 points, against Akron. And now it’s going to stay within four scores of Louisville? No. No no no no no. Lamar Jackson and Louisville could put up 80 in this one if they wanted, and because Bobby Petrino is their coach, they may end up wanting to. Pick: Louisville.

To Fade or Not to Fade: Everything Paul said above is correct and totally logical, which is why he’s wrong. This line should be 42 if you’re just stacking the quality of the two teams up against each other. But coming off a huge win over FSU with the early-season game of the year against Clemson next week and on the road at night against a team that just got bombed by Akron and is playing in the biggest game of its season; sleepwalking doesn’t begin to describe how Louisville will make its way through this game. They win big, but not big enough. Pick: To Fade.

Nebraska (-8) at Northwestern

This line feels weird to me, because Northwestern is bad and Nebraska could be kind of good. But this just seems like a game Pat Fitzgerald ends up ready for. I have nothing to back that up other than a gut feeling, so take this for what it’s worth: I think this game has some crazy-ass ending and is decided by a field goal or less. Pick: Northwestern.

To Fade or Not to Fade: WHOOOOOOOP! WHOOOOOOOP! WHOOOOOOOP! You know what that is? It’s the “That line smells funky” game of the week. Northwestern, the 1-2 team that lost 9-7 to FCS Illinois State and lost to Western Michigan, is only getting a smidge over a touchdown against a top 20 Nebraska team that just Oregon? Does that sound right? No, it doesn’t. Nobody walks into Evanston at night and gets out alive. I’d pick Northwestern outright. Pick: Not To Fade

South Carolina at Kentucky (-2.5)

Kentucky is not good. South Carolina is slightly less bad. I think the Gamecocks win it outright. Please don’t bother watching this game, though, because it will likely make your eyes bleed. Just check the score in the morning, like I will be doing. Pick: South Carolina.

To Fade or Not to Fade: This line suggest that Vegas thinks these two teams are equals in that they are equally terrible. Kentucky got boat-raced by Florida, lost to Southern Miss and is not good, and should, under almost no circumstances, be favored against an SEC team. That should tell you something about South Carolina. Kentucky just scored 62 against a crap New Mexico State, but 62 points is going to build confidence (a cliched analyst would say “momentum”) in a team that needs it. At home, at night . . . I guess Kentucky can cover a field goal. Pick: To Fade

Season record: 12-9

To Fade or Not to Fade 0-0

Jump on Florida State and A&M while you can

So I came back down to Earth a little bit this past week. I went 3-4, which in the world of gambling on sports doesn’t get your legs broken. And if you do it coming off a 6-1 week -- like I did, because remember, I went 6-1 in Week 1 and I’m going to tell you about it every chance I get -- you can just kind of shrug it off because you’re still 9-5 on the season and coming out ahead.

But still, anything below .500 is unacceptable for me. So my new strategy is to pick lines I like as opposed to the lines on all of the biggest games. This is what we call in the business, “Smart.” We also call it “pussing out.” Whatever.

(But seriously, if you’re going to bet on games, you should probably bet on the games you feel most confident in, not the ones that you would most enjoy watching. I feel like this is Football 101.)

Because I love you all and you want to see who wins those other games that we all care about, I’ll toss in some additional straight-up picks at the bottom. I am going to clearly mark where that starts so they cannot count against my record, unless I win them, then I will edit this page and slide them up because nothing on the Internet lasts forever. Right? *Googles old Myspace page …* Well, shit.

Florida State (-1) at Louisville

This game is essentially a pick ‘em now, so jump on it. Louisville has been spectacular early in the season, but against some bad teams, and I think a lot of the public still has the first half of the Ole Miss game in their heads when they think of FSU (mainly because most of them fell asleep at halftime). That explains the number. I think Louisville can keep this close, and a Derwin James-less Florida State secondary may have trouble against Lamar Jackson, but Louisville won’t be able to stop Florida State’s offense, and I trust the Seminoles defensive line to at least slow Jackson down a few times. Pick: Florida State

Temple at Penn State (-8.5)

Trusting James Franklin with your money seems like a poor decision at all times, but I’m making an exception here. Penn State was respectable against what I think is a pretty good Pitt team. Temple, meanwhile, is not your slightly older brother’s version of Temple. Matt Rhule missed the boat by not finding a bigger position after last year, because this year could be a bit of a struggle. I don’t see the Owls sticking within 10 of Penn State here. Pick: Penn State

Colorado at Michigan (-19)

The Wolverines have taken incremental steps toward playing an actual college football team in the first two weeks, and that continues in Week 3. Colorado has looked good through two games, but still figures to be the whipping boy of the Pac 12 this season. After some wobbles against Central Florida (minor wobbles in situations where it had zero impact on the game), I expect Michigan to come full force at Colorado and win this by four scores. Pick: Michigan

Oregon at Nebraska (-3.5)

What? This could be close, I guess. But I don’t see Nebraska winning this game, let alone by more than a field goal. Pick: Oregon

Miami (-3.5) at Appalachian State

Sure, Appalachian State nearly knocked off Tennessee on the road. Sure, Miami is going to be on the road. Sure, Appalachian State probably draws more fans than Miami does for home games. But no, this is not going to be a game Miami wins by less than a touchdown. Pick: Miami

USC at Stanford (O/U 52.5)

I was tempted to take Stanford and the points here (the Cardinal are favored by 9) but the over/under is much more enticing. USC isn’t going to stop Christian McCaffrey -- at all -- so Stanford may get to 52 on its own. And I don’t trust the Stanford defense all that much against the range of weapons USC has. Pick: Over 52.5

Texas A&M at Auburn (-3.5)

Auburn giving Clemson trouble was enough to make me hesitate on this line, but then I remembered Clemson struggled with Troy, too. I would take A&M straight up in this one, and if you give me more than a field goal cushion, I’m jumping on it. Pick: Texas A&M

STRAIGHT UP PICKS THAT WON’T IMPACT MY RECORD UNLESS I GET THEM RIGHT

This is a great week for college football, so I’m going to have a go at some of the bigger games on the slate.

Alabama at Ole Miss

I stayed away from this line (Alabama -11) because I feel like it’s too spot on. I can see Alabama stomping the Rebels after losing the last two in the series, or I could see young ‘Bama quarterbacks struggling against a disruptive Ole Miss front, and this one coming down to the wire. So 11 seems right about in the middle, and probably where this one will end up. Pick: Alabama

Ohio State at Oklahoma

I feel pretty confident Ohio State is going to win this game, because I think the Buckeyes have the better athletes, the better quarterback and the better coach. But Vegas knows that, and I feel like they’re baiting us all with that 1.5-point Buckeye line. So I’m not falling into the trap, but I do think JT Barrett’s experience will keep a young Ohio State team calm on the road. Pick: Ohio State

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Stay as far away from this 7.5-point line as possible. Michigan State is such an unknown at this point, that betting either way seems like an act of hubris sure to lose you money. MSU has had an extra week to prepare, but this early in the season, is a week off really a good thing? Notre Dame’s secondary is suspended/injured/brutal, but can Michigan State even take advantage of that? There are just too many questions that could be answered either way for me to feel comfortable picking against that line. But for this, give me who I think is the better team to come out on top. Pick: Notre Dame

Week Two Fantasy Football Thoughts: R-E-L-A-X

R-E-L-A-X

You may know--and if you don't you're about to--that Aaron Rodgers told potentially antsy Packers fans to do just that after their week 3 loss to Detroit in 2014; a forgettable 7 point showing from the offense. If he hadn't delivered that memorable quote that week,  Green Bay's (and his) early season struggles would be completely forgotten, because in the next 13 games Packers went 11-2 and Rodgers won the NFL MVP award, and they would have gone for the Super Bowl if they could have recovered an onside kick.

And I'm sure there are people out there who missed out on all of that because of the start of the season. In week 1 Rodgers mustered 189 yards passing and 1 touchdown. In week 2 the Packers scored 3 points in the first half before lighting up the Jets for 28 points in the second half. And in week 3 Rodgers tallied 162 passing yards and one touchdown in the above referenced disaster against the Lions.

One good half in three games had some people anxious about the high price they paid for Rodgers (and other Packers players--Eddie Lacy and Rodgers were #8 and #9 overall in ESPN ADP and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were WR #7 and #11 in ADP respectively) that year. Those that held on were rewarded. Rodgers finished as the top overall scorer in 2014. Nelson finished as WR #2. Lacy finished as RB #6 and Cobb finished as WR #6. There's no way those that cut bait early and traded any of those players got equal value in return in said trade.

Last year the Seattle Seahawks stumbled out of the gate. Through their first eight games they were 4-4 and their offense averaged just under 21 points per game. The bye week came in week 9 and they finished the season on a 6-2 run, averaging 32 points per game. Russell Wilson finished 3rd overall in fantasy scoring, Doug Baldwin average just under 18 fantasy points per game and a ragtag group of running backs *combined* to average 15 fantasy point per game. Thomas Rawls averaged 22 points in the three games he got double digit touches before getting hurt. Point is, they figured something out halfway through the season and those players helped win a lot of leagues. Imagine if you had dropped Doug Baldwin or traded Russell Wilson during their bye week last year.

The point of all this is don't make fantasy football transactions by reacting. A much preferable option would be thinking.

In the above examples there are a variety of players named with a pretty diverse set of track records. Rodgers obviously had the lengthiest and most excellent track record, which made it relatively easy to stay the course and trust that the league's best player would figure it out. Eddie Lacy, however was only in his second year--although his rookie year was very good. If you remember this was the first time pictures of 'fat' Eddie Lacy made their way onto Twitter and it was a year after Doug Martin flamed out in year two after having a phenomenal rookie season. There was some potential cause for concern there. Jordy was in his sixth season, having two very good years and four pedestrian years. And Randall Cobb had yet to really break out after having a nice year in 2012. It is perfectly reasonable that an owner of any of those three would have been looking to move on after the Packers slow start in 2014. Same goes for the guys in Seattle.

So I urge you to considering staying the course and holding on to your starting roster for another couple of weeks. You liked the team and players two weeks ago when you drafted it and them and it has only been one week. This thinking of course applies to owners who are panicked with slow starts. If you had a really good week one, I'd urge you to just hang on and enjoy having a potentially good team, but you're obviously not at a risk to cut bait on your starters.

A few years ago I traded Tony Romo for Ahmad Bradshaw two weeks into the season, because Romo had two bad games. This was in a 2 QB league in which TD passes are worth 6 points...QBs were important, but I needed an RB and I had two other good QBs. Long story short, my other QB got hurt, Ahmad Bradshaw got hurt, Romo had a nice season and I missed the playoffs in this league for the only time ever.

That season Romo finished as QB12 and Bradshaw finished as RB 27. In the league I was playing in, Romo's value was significantly higher than Bradshaw's by the end of the year. I "lost" the trade because I moved Romo at a time when his value was relatively low and Bradshaw's was high.

If you drafted Devonta Freeman, Sammy Watkins, Demaryius Thomas, Thomas Rawls, Todd Gurley, Brandon Marshall, Adrian Peterson, Gronk, Dez Bryant, etc. there's no shot of you returning the value of the draft pick you used on them in a trade. And, for me, finding value is the most important thing to do in fantasy football. So, willingly forfeiting value, both in the literal player-to-player swap (you give the better player playing worse football) and in what you ended up getting for that draft slot (i.e you drafted Devonta Freeman # 7 overall, but now trade him for Demarco Murray...nobody in their right mind would take Demarco Murray at #7 overall).

So, there may be a point in the season when you have to make some moves to shake things up and save what little hope you have left, but after week one is not that time, unless you get someone to give you a surefire starter for a borderline bench player.

So, in conclusion, stick it out for another week or two and then start to evaluate the long term prognosis for your squad.

Paul's Week 2 College Football Picks: This is a less than ideal week for college football

You’re welcome.

If you followed my advice on the seven games I predicted in Week 1, you went 6-1 and you can now quit your job, buy that lake house you’ve always wanted and send your children to college.

So, again, you’re welcome.

This week, you will need to be gambling in order to be entertained by this putrid slate of games. I suppose after an incredible Week 1, complaining about Week 2 is just being greedy. But c’mon. Not a single game between ranked teams? I did manage to find six spreads I felt like tackling, and one over/under that was begging for some action.

Arkansas at No. 15 TCU (-7.5)

In Week 14, Arkansas is going to have at least one win against a top 10 team, and some close games against other highly-ranked opponents and we’re going to wonder, “how the hell is this team 7-5?” Well, because Bret Bielema thinks the season starts in October. Pick: TCU.

North Carolina (-9) at Illinois

Lovie Smith had an impressive opener against Murray State, but I’m going to hold off on the Illini returning to the glory days of Kurt Kittner. No, really. Those were Illinois’ glory days. Kurt Kittner. North Carolina is better, and will win this game behind Elijah Hood. Nine is a tough line, but I see the Tar Heels clearing the bar by double digits. Pick: North Carolina.

BYU at Utah (-3)

Taysom Hill owns a pair of Curry 2 Lows. Pick: BYU.

Virginia Tech vs. No. 17 Tennessee (-11.5)

This line feels like a trap. Virginia Tech is a name and Tennessee probably should’ve lost to Appalachian State last week on ESPN in primetime. So we’re supposed to look at this and say, “Tennessee is overrated, and Virginia Tech is gonna be back under Fuente!” Easy money, right? Eh, probably not. Tennessee has a significant talent edge in this one, and I think Week 1 was more of a wake up call than a glimpse into the future of its season. Pick: Tennessee.

Penn State at Pittsburgh (-6)

I don’t like either of these teams. I do like Pat Narduzzi much more than I like James Franklin, though. Pick: Pitt.

Iowa State at No. 16 Iowa (-15)

Remember a week ago when I told you that it was bad to pick with your heart and then went ahead and picked Notre Dame (even though my head said it, too), and that was my only loss? Well, this is a bit different, but I’m still probably going to regret it. I love Matt Campbell. Not because he’s ever done anything for any team I’ve ever rooted for, but because I think he’s going to be incredible. Sure, Iowa State lost to Northern Iowa last week, and this game is at Kinnick, at night. But something tells me Iowa State finds a way to keep this semi-close. Pick: Iowa State.

Wake Forest at Duke (O/U 44.5)

Jesus Christ why would you ever think of taking the over in a game Wake Forest was playing in? And 44.5? Are you kidding me? Duke is only a five-point favorite in this game, meaning Vegas thinks Wake Forest is going to score at least 20 points. It scored seven at home against Tulane in Week 1. Wake Forest isn’t exactly the automatic under Boston College -- with the top defense in the country combined with a bottom five offense -- was, but it’s pretty damn close. Pick: Under.

Winning Plays: Week One Fantasy Thoughts

[footsteps from fancy shoes echo through an empty space . . . they stop]
[throat clearing]
[tap tap tap tap]
[Orchestra swells]
DUN DUN DUN DUN . . .  DUN-UH DUN-UH
DUN DUN DUN DUN DUH-NUH
DUNNNN DUNNN DUNNN DUNNNNN
DUN DUN DUN DUN DUN DUN

That, folks, is about as poorly as one man can onomatopoeia the Monday Night Football theme. And those sounds can only mean one thing: Football is back and has been for a few days because they already played on Thursday and Sunday and really Monday Night Football is closer to "football has ended" than "football is back" but I digress.

You read that right, football is back! And that means fantasy football is back! Hope you drafted a good team. If not, that's fine. According to an anecdote I agree with and stole from a man much smarter than I, fantasy football success is 25% draft, 25% trades, 25% waiver-transactions, and 25% avoiding major injuries. (Joe Cook said that, click his name and follow him on Twitter. Seriously he's smart and I've convinced him to do more fantasy writing and this shoutout is definitely not a way to pressure him into doing it.)

According to those numbers, and the calendar, you're a long way from fantasy glory and that involves more than decided who on your team to start each week. And we'll get into that, but first, a personal bit.

When attempting to conceive the point of this weekly blog, I struggled. I like fantasy football and I like writing about it. My first job in writing was a weekly fantasy blog for my local newspaper and man, I sucked at that from every aspect. I ripped off Matthew Berry's "Love Hate" in style, used other analysts rankings as a guide and waited until the last minute to submit it to the poor man who had to edit it so my mother could read it and not understand my jokes. And man, I always had bad jokes. And I would consistently try to sneak worse ones into the blog, before they were properly nixed by Paul, the poor man I mentioned earlier.

My goal is to do better than that this time.

And to use less one-line paragraphs.

So, that background taken into account, I didn't want to do a start/sit type of weekly post, because every site with a pulse has someone much more plugged in with a boatload of research and resources at his or her disposal doing just that. I'm not interested in getting into a fistfight with mountains. I couldn't do a daily fantasy thing for the same reasons. I'll quickly meander onto ESPN to check off some more things that they do better than I possibly could.

1. Rankings for every kind of league
2. Cheat Sheets!
3. Draft kits
4. Do not draft lists
5. Podcasts
6. Auction value generator
7. Projections
8. Mock drafts
9. Cheap auction targets
10. sleepers
11. streaming options for week one
12. IDP rankings
13. Sportscenter segments

Ok that's probably enough to get the point across. That list and the hundreds of other bits on content on ESPN and the thousands on other websites all provide insights to answer any question you could ever have about fantasy football. So, what does that leave for little old me? One man with a laptop. 

Seriously that wasn't rhetorical I'm honestly asking please help me.......

While I've already failed at eliminating one-line paragraphs from my work, I do think I, despite being just a guy, can help you win at fantasy football. That's what all those bits of content are for, clicks notwithstanding. They're to help you win. But they have one fatal flaw. They don't teach you how to be good at fantasy football.

Fantasy football content has exploded in recent years and it all is driven at its most-inner level by the insecurities of you, I and every other fantasy football player. We're all wandering in an unknown world, where money, pride, confidence, and a whole bunch of other stuff hangs on the balance of a few weekly decisions. 

And those other bits of content help, they do. They can quell your concerns over starting so-and-so, or maybe they can't. Why is my guy a a starter for Analyst A, but Analyst B has him ranked low? And I saw him on the Do Not Draft list, but I did it anyway, now what do I do, the starting corner on the other team is banged up that should be good for my guy, but what if he isn't and it's all gamesmanship I CAN'T START 0-3 OR I WON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND THEN I'LL HAVE A TATTOO OF ELMO DABBING HELP MEEEEEEEEEEEE.

Point is, there's an overabundance of information out there and I can guarantee that it will cover near every opinion one could possibly have on a certain player. And the ones that aren't covered are stupid things like "Devonta Freeman will be the number one running back in fantasy this year" and then they come true.

Despite all of this unknown we deal with as fantasy football players, there are people who consistently wade through it better than others. Think about your own league. If you've been in a consistent league for a good chunk of time there are probably people you can think of as perennial challengers for the title and people you would kindly describe as annual cellar-dwellers, even though we all know you're not really that kind to him or her.

My goal is to provide you with a weekly column that gives what I think are "winning plays". Some will be week specific, while some will be more forward-looking. Some might be theory. It might include bits and pieces that you would potentially find in one of the above listed content bits. I feel like I'm confusing you. You'll see what I mean.

So, there's the goal. I'd like for you to read this every week and feel confident in the decisions you are making. I'd like to help you get better at fantasy, not tell you who to start or what moves to make. And I'd like to make you laugh, but no promises.

Now, to the content!

(Note: This is all in the event you are playing in a 10-team standard scoring league)

A Week One Bench: I am of the belief that benches in fantasy football are the most mismanaged entities in the game. Too often benches are stocked with players in order of descending rank that aren't good enough to be starters on a weekly basis. TJ Yeldon is owned in 90% of ESPN leagues and is starting in 17%. Legatee Blount is owned 84% and started in 15%. Ameer Abdullah, 88% and 22%. Isaiah Crowell 70% and 7%. There are others, but we'll stick with those examples. These are all players that have a talent/role combination that makes them un-startable in a 10-team standard league.      All of these players are in some type of committee, sharing caries at best for an offense that is mediocre at best (Patriots excluded, but starting any non-pass catching Patriot RB is a coin flip at best) Their upside is limited.

Here are some more names. Alfred Morris is owned in just 35% of leagues, Jerick McKinnon 31%, DeAndre Washington 30%, Chris Johnson 20%, Paul Perkins and Robert Kelley 5%. These guys are all backups to pretty clear number one running backs. In the case of the first four, top 12 RBs and the only reason Washington's percentage is that high is because he had a good preseason and is a trendy name as a rookie. These guys are an injury away from a lion's share of carries on good offenses. They are an injury away from being a top 10 RB. They should all be owned in all leagues. But they aren't because, unlike the first group, they offer almost zero value until someone else gets hurt. Well, NFL RBs average 3 missed games per season, so guess what? Somebody is going to get hurt. You might as well own the right backups. All of this is doubly true if you own Elliot, Peterson, D. Johnson, LeVeon Bell etc. And add DeAngelo Williams to the list because once LeVeon Bell is back from suspension Williams ownership % will plummet and he needs to be owned in 100% of leagues.

In conclusion, use your bench spots on lottery tickets that payoff through injury rather than unexpected production. That way, when the inevitable injuries begin to pile up, you won't be fighting on the waiver wire to get the big pickup of the week. The big exception to this stuff is if you want to roster players Brett Favre or Calvin Johnson as a tribute to their greatness. And in the case of Favre, holding out hope The Gunslinger might lace 'em up one last time.

The same thinking doesn't quite work with receivers because ownership percentages for receivers are way higher than for running backs, because there are more receivers with value. The reason for that is because the NFL is setting records for pass attempts every single year. You may have noticed. I hope you have noticed. Frankly, it'd be hard not to notice.

I will say one thing, if you're thinking about starting a rookie wide receiver in week one, I urge you the reconsider. Remember how amazing Odell Beckham was as a rookie in 2014? Maybe the greatest rookie receiver ever right? Go look at his game log for his first few games. Or Amari Cooper. Or Mike Evans. Calvin Johnson.  Antonio Brown. Dez.  Julio.

Those are honestly the first seven I looked up. You'll notice the trend is a slow start and a better second half. There are outlier games here and there, but generally, even for the all-world talent receivers, it takes a minute to get going. Which makes sense because even for regular folks like you and I, we kind of suck at new jobs until we get to do them for a little bit and sort of figure out what works, what doesn't work, how to make your boss not mad at you, who the office weirdo is, etc. Nobody is the best immediately.

Granted, this year's rookie class isn't getting the most love ever, with Sterling Shepard having the highest ADP, but keep the above in mind. In a week or two or three, the rookie receiving class as a whole will have the lowest stock it is going to have all year. Then, guys will start to have good weeks.  If a Corey Coleman, Shepard, Will Fuller, Michael Thomas, Josh Doctson, even guys like Kevin White and Devin Funchess--who are second year players with very little in the way of production--have a week or two of 6-8 targets, 5 catches or so and around 50 yards--mediocre production essentially-- make a move for them. You can probably get them cheaper than the draft pick the other owner used on them. And, yes, you're right, this would have been handy information for you to have before you drafted so I should have done this a few weeks ago. I have no excuses, but kindly ask that you please stop yelling at me.

STEADFAST RULE ALERT: Don't ever ever ever ever use a bench spot on tight ends, defenses or kickers. And only use bench spots on QBs during your bye week or if you stashed Brady. You have your starter. If he stinks or has a bad matchup, you will have options in the free agent pool.

STEADFAST RULE ALERT: DON'T UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE, UNLESS IT'S A TWO QUARTERBACK LEAGUE, ROSTER JAKE CUTLER. SERIOUSLY. DON'T.

But seriously please don't waste your bench spots on TEs you'll never use, D/ST that you should just stream week to week or QBs that you'd never trust to start. Use those valuable roster spots on the things detailed above and odds are your team will be much more set up for success.

Well, that's enough. I'd love to discuss anything further with you or answer any questions you might have, or trade insults if you so choose, so feel free to comment below.

Until next week.