Had some bad beats last week and ended up 2-5, dropping my season record to 18-16. That’s not a good record, but we’re still positive.
Let’s take a look at what went wrong: I made the mistake of doubting a Bob Stoops team that was already doubted; Tennessee let Georgia score a go-ahead touchdown with 10 seconds left while leading by a spread-covering four points (then won on a walk-off hail Mary, meaning no EP for the cover); Jourdan Lewis did a ridiculous thing, preventing Michigan from getting the ball about 10 yards away from a TD to cover (which it would have scored because there’s no way Jim Harbaugh isn’t trying to score in that situation); my alma mater got its pants pulled down and spanked by its biggest rival; and I fell into a Vegas trap with Utah/Cal.
Some of that is bad luck. Some of it is fixable. This is why Vegas always ends up winning. Side note: Wil got both of his fades correct. That asshole. (rude)
This week, I’m gonna be better. I think.
Notre Dame at NC State (-2.5)
Notre Dame’s defense actually looked like a semi-competent unit a week ago in the second half against Syracuse. Yes, it was Syracuse, but this is the same defense that made Duke look like Baylor a week earlier. NC State can score and has a strong defensive line, but it’s 61st in the country in pass defense against this murderer’s row: William & Mary, Old Dominion, East Carolina and Wake Forest. DeShone Kizer should be able to do whatever he wants, and the Irish will win this game. Pick: Notre Dame
To Fade or Not to Fade
Remember when three paragraphs ago Paul said he was going to fix some mistakes he made last week and then immediately picked a game featuring his team which was also a trap? Yeah, me too. Pick: To Fade
Houston (-17) at Navy
Houston is going to be able to score whenever it wants in this one, and its defense is nearly as good as its offense. The triple option is hard to defend if you don’t see it often. Houston is familiar with it, and is simply better. Pick: Houston
To Fade or Not to Fade
Navy has this habit of playing teams much closer than they should because they limit possessions and run the option better than pretty much anyone. This one is in Annapolis and one of these teams is about to have a shot at getting its biggest win of the year. Gimme those points. Pick: To Fade
BYU at Michigan State (-6)
The biggest margin of victory in a BYU game this season -- either way -- has been three. Michigan State is struggling, especially on offense, and will be without Malik McDowell for a half, no matter how absurd we can all agree that targeting call was. I think the Spartans likely win, but I don’t think it’s a touchdown difference. Pick: BYU
To Fade or Not to Fade
So I have no clue what to ever make of MSU and I’ve learned that anytime you have an opinion on them, it’s wrong and you do the opposite. Pick: To Fade
Colorado at USC (-6)
This line is screaming “PICK COLORADO ARE YOU CRAZY?” at me. The Buffs look good early on this season, while USC looks less than good. So is Vegas just banking on bettors who aren’t paying attention and simply see the names here? Probably not. Pick: USC
To Fade or Not to Fade
Home dog with significantly more talent getting points? MMMMMMMMMMMM. Pick: Not to Fade
Alabama (-14) at Arkansas
I have half a mind to pick Arkansas to win this game straight up. The Razorbacks always have something weird in store, and what better time to pull that out than now? Even if they don’t win, I bet they find a way to keep this relatively close. Pick: Arkansas
To Fade or Not to Fade
I too have half a mind to pick Arkansas to win this game straight up. That’s what makes -14 so jarring. Think of how much better Vegas thinks Alabama is in order to set that line. Folks, there’s an absolute ass kicking coming to BERT. Pick: To Fade
Washington (-9) at Oregon
Washington is goooooooooood. Oregon is less good. Pick: Washington
To Fade or Not to Fade:
PAUL!? C’mon you said you were going to learn!!! 75% of the public is on Washington. And folks, when the number is that high, the public is always wrong. Oregon wins outright. Pick: To Fade
Florida State at Miami (-3)
At some point I should probably stop believing in Florida State. The defense isn’t nearly as good as advertised, and teams are making Dalvin Cook less potent by scoring a bazillion points or putting the Seminoles down early. Mark Richt isn’t winning a national title this year, but he’ll keep people in Miami interested in college football for at least one more week. Pick: Miami
To Fade or Not to Fade
I actually think this line is a ‘balance the books’ special where Vegas just sets a line to split the bets and makes a little profit because it’s a big game and there are a lot of degenerates in Florida putting money on this game. If Miami wins, it won’t be by more than 3. Pick: To Fade
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