Alabama is a monster and Vegas can't make big enough spreads for it

You know, it’s probably fitting that I keep putting up 2-5 weeks. That is, after all, Notre Dame’s record after seven, horrible, no good, awful games.

The Irish are on a bye this week, getting a chance to reset as they get ready for their final five games -- all somehow winnable and loseable at the same time -- and the reality that a bowl game is less than likely.

I do not get a bye week, but perhaps I should use this off week for the team that I’ve rooted for since childhood to have my own personal reset.

Or not. Who knows. I’m 22-26, and maybe just not that great?

All that being said, take all of your hard earned money and make the following bets this week!

Wisconsin (-3.5) at Iowa

Hmm. Hmmmmmmm. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm. This line is interesting because Wisconsin has two losses on the season against Top 5 teams, both by a touchdown. Iowa, meanwhile, struggled with Rutgers and has lost to an FCS school (albeit, the best FBS school, but still), and Northwestern. Is Vegas banking on a hangover for the Badgers? Does it not trust the offense at Kinnick? Does it just feel bad for me and want to give me a freebie? My guess is the first two are much more likely than the last one. But this is when I do that thing where I talk myself out of not falling for a Vegas trap, which has been such a great strategy so far this year. Pick: Wisconsin.

North Carolina (-9.5) at Virginia

North Carolina is good, folks. Virginia is not. And Virginia doesn’t have the type of homefield advantage that would make this closer than a double-digit Tar Heel win. Pick: North Carolina.

Colorado at Stanford (-2)

Did Stanford right the ship last week against Notre Dame, or did it play a really bad Notre Dame team that was made worse by a coach floundering for answers and benching his NFL quarterback for three straight possessions? Pick: Colorado.

TCU at West Virginia (-6.5)

Things I know to be true: When I pick TCU to win, it loses and doesn’t cover. This, of course, means that I have to pick West Virginia in this game. Don’t bother putting any logic into your thoughts on what you just read. Pick: West Virginia.

Texas A&M at Alabama (-18.5)

At this point, we can all agree that the only way Alabama loses is if the entire team gets struck with food poisoning and the symptoms kick in on the opening kick and last all the way through the game. Only last three quarters? Bama will come back and win in the fourth. Don’t start until the second quarter? Bama will get up by enough in the first quarter to stay ahead the rest of the way. Only hit the offense? The defense has scored 11 touchdowns. ELEVEN. I think that 18.5 is a huge line in a game between top 6 teams, but I just can’t pick against the Tide right now, not matter the spread. Pick: Alabama.

Ohio State (-19.5) at Penn State

This line crept up to 21 before settling in at just under three TDs. I have a feeling Ohio State will be out to prove something in this one, but 19.5 points at night in Happy Valley in front of a white out crowd? That seems like a lot. I could see a 31-14 type win, which is a dominant road win, but doesn’t cover the spread. Pick: Penn State.

Ole Miss at LSU (-7.5)

I understand that Ed Orgeron has woken LSU up, but let’s not get too excited about wins against Missouri and Southern Mississippi. Yes, they were blowout wins and the offense looked very good, something that hasn’t been said about LSU in a long time, but the Florida game that was postponed would have given us a better idea of how good this LSU team actually is. As it stands, I still don’t think the Tigers are better than Ole Miss, and certainly not by more than a touchdown. Pick: Ole Miss.

DFS Picks Week 6

Note: The following applies to GPP tournaments.

So this week there are a ton of really great, really expensive options at both QB and WR. As a general guideline this week, the most common method of lineup construction will be to pay up for expensive RBs and expensive QBs, while finding value plays at WR. So, in order to succeed in a tournament, we should try to construct lineups using different thought patters.

Stacks I like this week

Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones Jr. 

So, Marvin Jones posted season lows in targets, receptions and yards last week, after posting what was his worst statline of the season the week prior. A lot of people rostered him after his huge game against Green Bay and he has not come close to returning the value, so I think people will be off him this week. He still has 42 targets in 5 games, and is a good bet to get double digit targets this week. That is because the Lions cannot run the ball and are facing one of the league's best front sevens in Los Angeles. And while the Rams are great up front, they are subpar in the back end. Stafford will throw the ball a ton this week and both players figure to have low ownership as players will choose Brees/Brady/Big Ben/Newton this week and won't be able to afford Jones.

Brock Osweiler and Will Fuller

If you want to use DeAndre Hopkins in this stack instead of Fuller, that's fine, but Fuller will see more snaps away from Indy's top DB Vantae Davis and he's significantly cheaper, returns punts and, oh yeah, might be just as good. Indianapolis stinks on defense--I also love Lamar Miller in this game stacked with the Houston D/ST--ranking 27th in Draftkings points given up to opposing QBs. Fuller is seeing 8 targets a game right now and if he gets that, he could be in for a big day. Brock is throwing the ball just under 40 times a game and is a tremendous value at $5,400. Don't be afraid to use this lineup with Houstons D/ST as well, or stack Lamar Miller with Osweiler as Miller gets all the carries and catches passes.

Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin or Travis Kelce

Oakland gives up the most QB points in Draftkings....so there's that. And Smith is near minimum this week and saving on him will allow you to pay up at WR (I really like all of the receivers in the $7,000 range this week). Smith's rushing hasn't been there yet this year, but he's always a threat to run for 40 and a touchdown, which is huge in DFS. The Raiders also rank last in WR points and 27th in TE points this year and if Smith has a big game, odds are it is going to Maclin or Kelce. Chris Conley is a really cheap flier you could throw into a lineup as well and could pay off huge. I'm not going to write them up, but I also like a game stack with some Raiders players. So you could use Smith, Maclin and Cooper...or Carr, Cooper and Kelce, etc.

Darren Sproles and Eagles D/ST

There is a positive correlation between running backs and defenses on teams that lead in games, which I think will be the case here. Kirk Cousins likes to turn the ball over, as does Matt Jones, so there's always a shot one of those goes to the house. The Redskins also can't stop the run (worst in rB scoring on Draftkings), and Sproles has the most defined roles of any PHI RB and he catches passes which is big in PPR scoring. Spirals could also return a punt for a TD, giving both himself and the eagles D a TD.

Others

I like Brees to a pass catcher as well, and will have a few lineups with that stack, but I like to be on the other side when everybody says something is so. That game will have points, but if it doesn't have 70 points, not loading up on it can pay dividends.

I like Tyrod Taylor to Charles Clay this week as a super value play with some good upside. San Francisco is making the West to East trip with an early kickoff and Tyrod's rushing always gives him a high floor.

SNEAKY STACK OF THE WEEK

So, I won't load up on this, but I've got a feeling about using Arian Foster with the Dolphins D. Big Ben is not nearly the same quarterback on the road as he is at home, throwing for ~280 1.5 TDs and 1 INT per game on the road this year compared to ~315 yards 4 TDs and .67 INTs per game at home. The Steelers are 25th in RB points given up so far and if Arian is healthy (which appears to be the case) he could see around 20 touches as there are no other real options in the backfield. Like I said, I'm not using this stack more than once or twice, but I think it can return really good value.

DOUBLE STACK BABAYYY

If you're playing in a league that includes the Monday Night Football game, then you must use at least one lineup with Carson Palmer, An ARI WR (preferably John Brown) and David Johnson. Carson Palmer and John Brown's prices are laughably low and Monday games always have lower ownership. The Jets are putrid at defending the pass and are hurt. Ignore the idea that passing success might mean they run less, because DJ is heavily involved in the passing game and the Cardinals might score 40. I also don't hate a game stack with a Jet pass catcher, given the garbage time that is likely.

Good players I am avoiding

Ben Roethlisberger 

For the reasons listed above and he's expensive. I'd also like to note here that Antonio Brown is 10K this week and while I still think he can have a good game, I won't own him much at that price with all of the options around 7K.

Ezekiel Elliot

It's a tough ownership to project because he just had a huge week but is in a tough matchup. Green Bay is historically great at stopping the run this year. This won't be a full fade, because he could be a good contrarian play given his talent and O-Line. I'm hoping he has high ownership and doesn't return value.

AJ Green

The best think the Patriots do is identify your best offensive weapon and take it away. Given the lack of other options in the passing game I think Green does get a good amount of targets, but also think he has a tough time doing much with them.

Cam Newton

I think he'll be the most owned QB of the week and that makes me nervous. He's also the most expensive. And he's coming off a concussion. I think he has a good week, but I'm concerned his rushing is down near the goal line. This could really come back to bite me, but I won't own Newton this week and hope he has a 22 point game, good, but not near enough return to make an impact in tournaments.

Matt Ryan and Julio Jones

Playing at Seattle is really, really hard. And the indications are the Jones will be shadowed by Richard Sherman this week. Ryan was a good real life QB in the win against Denver last week, but didn't return his value in DFS.

DART THROWS

Tavon Austin

Forgive the lack of citation (I tried to find it again but couldn't...maybe ESPN Stats and Info) but Detroit is 2nd worst in the NFL in fantasy points given up to slot players. The worst is Tampa Bay and Austin torched them in Week 2. Austin is getting 9 targets/game and could return tremendous value this week.

James White

He has been a lot more involved in the passing game the last two weeks and we all know how much Brady likes to throw the ball to running backs. I think White will see a lot of open space with the focus on other NE pass catchers.

Chris Conley

I mentioned him above, but just wanted to remind you.

Tyler Lockett

The focus for Atlanta's mediocre secondary will be on Baldwin and Graham which could be great for Lockett who is finally healthy again. He's also a weapon in the punt return game, so I like stacking him with Seattle's defense. I try to not get caught up too much in what coaches and beat writers say, but a lot of people have been hyping up Lockett this week.

Colin Kaepernick and Torrey Smith

I grouped them together because if I'm using Kaep, I'm stacking him with Smith, given the deep ball nature of the two. This is a real dart throw because we haven't seen Kapernick be good in a couple years, but his skill set and style of offense seem to be the perfect marriage. We'll see, but if Kaep gets the running going and hits a deep pass to Smith, it could be tremendous value.

Jamaal Charles

He had the bye week to rest after making his debut in a limited role. He's really low priced because nobody really knows what to expect, but his price may never be that low again. It's always great to be a week ahead of the crowd in DFS and this might be the week to buy in on Charles, who, when right, is as good as it gets.

Week 7 picks to prevent your legs from getting broken

Folks, we are officially losing money.

After a 2-5 week, the record has moved to 20-21 on the season, and frankly I’m disappointed in all of you.

The only way to fix this is to threaten all of your positions and fire Wil. It has to be done. Just so long as I don’t take any of the responsibility.

Also, what the fuck, Brian Kelly? Calling 36 pass plays in a one-score game in a hurricane? Really?

Anyway, here are the picks that have to be right, or else my legs get broken.

Nebraska (-3) at Indiana

I like Indiana this year. The win against Michigan State may not be as flashy as it was when it happened, but this is Indiana we’re talking about, so it still seems pretty big. Vegas must think quite a bit of the Hoosiers, too, as they’re only a 3-point dog against a top 10 team. Or maybe, like me, Vegas doesn’t think much of Nebraska? Give me the home team here. Pick: Indiana.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Folks, this line stinks to the high heavens. Indiana hung really tough with OSU and while Paul is right about the MSU win, it's still something that traditionally hadn't happened at Indiana. They're better than you and I think because we're biased by their miserable history. Pick: Not to Fade

Alabama (-12) at Tennessee

Tennessee is in the middle of a brutal stretch of games, and the emotion of the last two weeks could be tough to deal with, especially if Alabama starts fast and takes the Neyland Stadium crowd out of it. Count me among those who think that happens. Alabama is a flat-out better team, and as good as I think Tennessee is, this one has the potential to spin out of control. Pick: Alabama.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Two words. Blood. Bath. And it won't be streaming from the noses of the Alabama faithful. Tennessee had been really fortunate all season prior to last week and relying on fortune against the Tide is not a super good plan. Pick: Not to Fade

Ohio State (-10.5) at Wisconsin

As much as I love the Wisconsin defense, it hasn’t seen anything quite like the Ohio State offense. LSU and Michigan State’s offenses are horribad, and Michigan’s is good but not great. Ohio State isn’t going to score 50, but 30 would be enough against a bad Wisconsin offense to cover this spread. Pick: Ohio State

To Fade or Not to Fade

Here is an opinion: Ohio state is the best team in the country. And this line is huge, especially because we do know Wisconsin is a legitimate good team. Vegas knows. Pick: Not to fade

North Carolina at Miami (-7)

North Carolina is hard to read, and I’m trying not to think too much about last week’s result against Virginia Tech because the game was played in a hurricane. It’s amazing that I can keep writing that sentence and not be exaggerating at all. As I write this, I still don’t feel certain either way, so the safe thing would be to not pick one of these teams to win by a touchdown. Pick: North Carolina.

To Fade or Not to Fade

North Carolina is better than Miami. Pick: Not to fade

Northwestern at Michigan State (-6.5)

This is a big game for Michigan State, not just because four-game losing streaks are bad, but because this is the true “show me” game for the Spartans early on. A bad showing against BYU isn’t forgivable, but it was a non-conference game in the middle of a conference schedule. This is the one MSU has to win to show everyone that it’s not going to go meekly into the offseason at .500 or below. Picking that offense to beat anyone not named Notre Dame by a touchdown seems dumb, but it kind of feels right here. Pick: Michigan State.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Don't bet on this game. Please don't. Promise me you won't do that. We don't even know who is going to play quarterback for Michigan state this week. It could be me out there on Saturday. Why would you feel comfortable picking this game? Pick: MSU by 100

Ole Miss (-7.5) at Arkansas

Arkansas has been exposed a bit in each of its SEC games, getting pasted by Texas A&M and Alabama. Sure, Texas A&M and Alabama are legitimate playoff contenders this year, and Ole Miss is not, but the Rebels are still better than Arkansas. My guess is quite a bit better than an Arkansas team that is a week removed from getting physically beat up by Alabama. Pick: Ole Miss.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Yeah I'll take 7 and the hook for a home dawg coached by Bielema. Pick: To Fade

Stanford at Notre Dame (-3)

One score has separated these two teams in each of their last four meetings, including a year ago when they were both top 10 teams and Stanford won on a last-second field goal in one of the best games of the season. Oh, how far they have fallen. Both teams limp into this with essentially unsalvageable seasons (in mid-October!), and Stanford is limping in possibly without Christian McCaffrey -- or at the least a very beaten up Christian McCaffrey. The Cardinal offense is pretty toothless without him, but will Notre Dame’s equally toothless defense make this look like the Cardinal of old? Who knows. I would expect a shootout, so I’ll lean to the home team with the much better quarterback. Pick: Notre Dame.

To Fade or Not to Fade

Instead of bathing in the glory of his team’s suckitude, Paul still fears it and that's a shame. LEAN IN, PAUL. YOU AND I CAN RIDE THE GOODYEAR BLIMP OF DISGRACE AS WE WATCH OUR RESPECTIVE SEASONS GO DOWN IN FLAMES AND CRASH GLORIOUSLY INTO THE FLOOR OF THE FBS, DRAGGING OUR PRIDE, ENDOWMENT AND RECRUITING RANKINGS WITH IT. LEAN IN, BUDDY. Pick: Not to Fade

Week 6 picks: OK, fine. This can be kind of hard

Had some bad beats last week and ended up 2-5, dropping my season record to 18-16. That’s not a good record, but we’re still positive.

Let’s take a look at what went wrong: I made the mistake of doubting a Bob Stoops team that was already doubted; Tennessee let Georgia score a go-ahead touchdown with 10 seconds left while leading by a spread-covering four points (then won on a walk-off hail Mary, meaning no EP for the cover); Jourdan Lewis did a ridiculous thing, preventing Michigan from getting the ball about 10 yards away from a TD to cover (which it would have scored because there’s no way Jim Harbaugh isn’t trying to score in that situation); my alma mater got its pants pulled down and spanked by its biggest rival; and I fell into a Vegas trap with Utah/Cal.

Some of that is bad luck. Some of it is fixable. This is why Vegas always ends up winning. Side note: Wil got both of his fades correct. That asshole. (rude)

This week, I’m gonna be better. I think.

Notre Dame at NC State (-2.5)

Notre Dame’s defense actually looked like a semi-competent unit a week ago in the second half against Syracuse. Yes, it was Syracuse, but this is the same defense that made Duke look like Baylor a week earlier. NC State can score and has a strong defensive line, but it’s 61st in the country in pass defense against this murderer’s row: William & Mary, Old Dominion, East Carolina and Wake Forest. DeShone Kizer should be able to do whatever he wants, and the Irish will win this game. Pick: Notre Dame

To Fade or Not to Fade

Remember when three paragraphs ago Paul said he was going to fix some mistakes he made last week and then immediately picked a game featuring his team which was also a trap? Yeah, me too. Pick: To Fade

Houston (-17) at Navy

Houston is going to be able to score whenever it wants in this one, and its defense is nearly as good as its offense. The triple option is hard to defend if you don’t see it often. Houston is familiar with it, and is simply better. Pick: Houston

To Fade or Not to Fade

Navy has this habit of playing teams much closer than they should because they limit possessions and run the option better than pretty much anyone. This one is in Annapolis and one of these teams is about to have a shot at getting its biggest win of the year. Gimme those points. Pick: To Fade

BYU at Michigan State (-6)

The biggest margin of victory in a BYU game this season -- either way -- has been three. Michigan State is struggling, especially on offense, and will be without Malik McDowell for a half, no matter how absurd we can all agree that targeting call was. I think the Spartans likely win, but I don’t think it’s a touchdown difference. Pick: BYU

To Fade or Not to Fade

So I have no clue what to ever make of MSU and I’ve learned that anytime you have an opinion on them, it’s wrong and you do the opposite. Pick: To Fade

Colorado at USC (-6)

This line is screaming “PICK COLORADO ARE YOU CRAZY?” at me. The Buffs look good early on this season, while USC looks less than good. So is Vegas just banking on bettors who aren’t paying attention and simply see the names here? Probably not. Pick: USC

To Fade or Not to Fade

Home dog with significantly more talent getting points? MMMMMMMMMMMM. Pick: Not to Fade

Alabama (-14) at Arkansas

I have half a mind to pick Arkansas to win this game straight up. The Razorbacks always have something weird in store, and what better time to pull that out than now? Even if they don’t win, I bet they find a way to keep this relatively close. Pick: Arkansas

To Fade or Not to Fade

I too have half a mind to pick Arkansas to win this game straight up. That’s what makes -14 so jarring. Think of how much better Vegas thinks Alabama is in order to set that line. Folks, there’s an absolute ass kicking coming to BERT. Pick: To Fade

Washington (-9) at Oregon

Washington is goooooooooood. Oregon is less good. Pick: Washington

To Fade or Not to Fade:

PAUL!? C’mon you said you were going to learn!!! 75% of the public is on Washington. And folks, when the number is that high, the public is always wrong. Oregon wins outright. Pick: To Fade

Florida State at Miami (-3)

At some point I should probably stop believing in Florida State. The defense isn’t nearly as good as advertised, and teams are making Dalvin Cook less potent by scoring a bazillion points or putting the Seminoles down early. Mark Richt isn’t winning a national title this year, but he’ll keep people in Miami interested in college football for at least one more week. Pick: Miami

To Fade or Not to Fade

I actually think this line is a ‘balance the books’ special where Vegas just sets a line to split the bets and makes a little profit because it’s a big game and there are a lot of degenerates in Florida putting money on this game. If Miami wins, it won’t be by more than 3. Pick: To Fade