So I came back down to Earth a little bit this past week. I went 3-4, which in the world of gambling on sports doesn’t get your legs broken. And if you do it coming off a 6-1 week -- like I did, because remember, I went 6-1 in Week 1 and I’m going to tell you about it every chance I get -- you can just kind of shrug it off because you’re still 9-5 on the season and coming out ahead.
But still, anything below .500 is unacceptable for me. So my new strategy is to pick lines I like as opposed to the lines on all of the biggest games. This is what we call in the business, “Smart.” We also call it “pussing out.” Whatever.
(But seriously, if you’re going to bet on games, you should probably bet on the games you feel most confident in, not the ones that you would most enjoy watching. I feel like this is Football 101.)
Because I love you all and you want to see who wins those other games that we all care about, I’ll toss in some additional straight-up picks at the bottom. I am going to clearly mark where that starts so they cannot count against my record, unless I win them, then I will edit this page and slide them up because nothing on the Internet lasts forever. Right? *Googles old Myspace page …* Well, shit.
Florida State (-1) at Louisville
This game is essentially a pick ‘em now, so jump on it. Louisville has been spectacular early in the season, but against some bad teams, and I think a lot of the public still has the first half of the Ole Miss game in their heads when they think of FSU (mainly because most of them fell asleep at halftime). That explains the number. I think Louisville can keep this close, and a Derwin James-less Florida State secondary may have trouble against Lamar Jackson, but Louisville won’t be able to stop Florida State’s offense, and I trust the Seminoles defensive line to at least slow Jackson down a few times. Pick: Florida State
Temple at Penn State (-8.5)
Trusting James Franklin with your money seems like a poor decision at all times, but I’m making an exception here. Penn State was respectable against what I think is a pretty good Pitt team. Temple, meanwhile, is not your slightly older brother’s version of Temple. Matt Rhule missed the boat by not finding a bigger position after last year, because this year could be a bit of a struggle. I don’t see the Owls sticking within 10 of Penn State here. Pick: Penn State
Colorado at Michigan (-19)
The Wolverines have taken incremental steps toward playing an actual college football team in the first two weeks, and that continues in Week 3. Colorado has looked good through two games, but still figures to be the whipping boy of the Pac 12 this season. After some wobbles against Central Florida (minor wobbles in situations where it had zero impact on the game), I expect Michigan to come full force at Colorado and win this by four scores. Pick: Michigan
Oregon at Nebraska (-3.5)
What? This could be close, I guess. But I don’t see Nebraska winning this game, let alone by more than a field goal. Pick: Oregon
Miami (-3.5) at Appalachian State
Sure, Appalachian State nearly knocked off Tennessee on the road. Sure, Miami is going to be on the road. Sure, Appalachian State probably draws more fans than Miami does for home games. But no, this is not going to be a game Miami wins by less than a touchdown. Pick: Miami
USC at Stanford (O/U 52.5)
I was tempted to take Stanford and the points here (the Cardinal are favored by 9) but the over/under is much more enticing. USC isn’t going to stop Christian McCaffrey -- at all -- so Stanford may get to 52 on its own. And I don’t trust the Stanford defense all that much against the range of weapons USC has. Pick: Over 52.5
Texas A&M at Auburn (-3.5)
Auburn giving Clemson trouble was enough to make me hesitate on this line, but then I remembered Clemson struggled with Troy, too. I would take A&M straight up in this one, and if you give me more than a field goal cushion, I’m jumping on it. Pick: Texas A&M
STRAIGHT UP PICKS THAT WON’T IMPACT MY RECORD UNLESS I GET THEM RIGHT
This is a great week for college football, so I’m going to have a go at some of the bigger games on the slate.
Alabama at Ole Miss
I stayed away from this line (Alabama -11) because I feel like it’s too spot on. I can see Alabama stomping the Rebels after losing the last two in the series, or I could see young ‘Bama quarterbacks struggling against a disruptive Ole Miss front, and this one coming down to the wire. So 11 seems right about in the middle, and probably where this one will end up. Pick: Alabama
Ohio State at Oklahoma
I feel pretty confident Ohio State is going to win this game, because I think the Buckeyes have the better athletes, the better quarterback and the better coach. But Vegas knows that, and I feel like they’re baiting us all with that 1.5-point Buckeye line. So I’m not falling into the trap, but I do think JT Barrett’s experience will keep a young Ohio State team calm on the road. Pick: Ohio State
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Stay as far away from this 7.5-point line as possible. Michigan State is such an unknown at this point, that betting either way seems like an act of hubris sure to lose you money. MSU has had an extra week to prepare, but this early in the season, is a week off really a good thing? Notre Dame’s secondary is suspended/injured/brutal, but can Michigan State even take advantage of that? There are just too many questions that could be answered either way for me to feel comfortable picking against that line. But for this, give me who I think is the better team to come out on top. Pick: Notre Dame
No comments:
Post a Comment