Hello. Here are some daily fantasy plays I like this week.
Cash Games: 50/50s, Head-to-Head, Double-Ups - We want high floors and plays with a lot of volume for good value.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton - Carolina at Atlanta is--quite surprisingly--the 2nd highest Vegas total this weekend, meaning the folks in the desert are banking on some points being score. The Panthers run game is on crutches with Jonathan Stewart out and Newton made news this week by guaranteeing top wideout Kelvin Benjamin wouldn't go without a catch again this week. The Panthers should score a decent amount and it's a safe bet that Cam will be the producer of those scores.
Philip Rivers - You can play him in tournaments stacked with a Chargers receiver because the Saints D is just that bad and he has huge upside to go with a high floor. This game--unsurprisingly--has the highest Vegas point total this week and Rivers might be the most common play in cash games. So playing him just to keep up with the neighbors is a smart play, especially if he goes off.
Kirk Cousins - Another good value this week with Washington hosting the lowly Browns. He's another guy you could stack with a Washington receiver to play in tournaments. Cousins has thrown for almost 1,000 yards already and is a good bet to throw multiple touchdown passes and reach the 300 yard bonus. Ryan Tannehill just threw for 319 and 3 TDs against Cleveland last weekend.
Running Backs
Le'Veon Bell - The best non-David Johnson fantasy running back in the league has returned and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said Bell will immediately get a heavy workload and Ben Roethelisberger said Bell will see snaps at receiver this week. He has huge volume and catches passes which makes him an always solid cash game play.
Melvin Gordon - He'll be the most owned running back this week and you should have him in all of your cash game lineups.
LeGarrette Blount - This is the last chance to use him before Brady gets back and the Patriots start throwing the ball more. His volume, 25 carries per game, makes him a safe choice with a high floor. He's got 4 TDs through 3 games and it would come of no surprise to see him there again this weekend.
Jordan Howard - He's here because his price tag is so low. He's the only healthy back with talent on Chicago right now. The Lions do have a decent run defense, but are missing some pieces at linebacker this week. He's a good value play so you can pay up for an elite running back like David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins - He owns the Titans. The lowest yardage total he has posted against them in the last two season is 94 and he has 4 TDs in his last 4 games against them. He also has a very favorable matchup according to ESPN's Mike Clay (Clay's CB/WR matchup articles are worth the price of Insider alone). His high upside makes him a strong tournament play as well.
Julian Edelman - Edelman has 23 targets this year, good for a whopping 27% target share. I'm inclined to believe he gets in the end zone this week to go with his standard 7 or so catches and 70 yards. In his last 2 games against Buffalo he has 20 catches for 188 yard and 2 TDs.
Terrelle Pryor - He's the value play this weekend at WR. He'll be very heavily owned as his price tag is yet to adjust fully to the points he's been putting up. And Josh Gordon just went to rehab to go with Corey Coleman breaking his hand, so this might be your last shot to get Pryor at a value price.
Tight Ends
Zach Miller - The Lions have been brutal against the tight end and Miller's low price tag makes him a safe pick.
Hunter Henry - He'll be very heavily owned with his bottom-of-the-barrel price tag. Henry had a nice week in his first start with Antonio Gates out, catching all 5 of his targets for 92 yards. Annnnnnnd, oh yeah, he's going against that Saints D.
Greg Olsen - Aside from a healthy Gronk, Olsen is the safest TE play in the league. The Falcons are the worst in the league against the TE in fantasy points allowed.
D/ST
So this week the Cardinals, Seahawks and Broncos all play against a bottom 5 offensive team and are probably the safest options in a cash game lineup and have high upside for the tournament route. Houston gets Tennessee at home and the Titans are the second friendliest offense to opposing fantasy defenses, but JJ Watt being out has some concerned. I still think they're a good option. I'd go with any of the four above listed teams and play it safe this week in cash games.
Tournaments: We need guys to go off and a lot of them. Some will be studs and some will be guys that are more risk/reward situations. Players with upside and low ownership numbers are key.
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco - This play is contingent on a stack with Steve Smith and if you're going to use this lineup, use it sparingly knowing that it could come back to bite you. Flacco is one of the cheaper options this week and using him gives you freedom to spend on other positions. He's going against the 30th ranked Raiders passing D for fantasy scoring, which gives him big upside.
Brian Hoyer - I think his ownership will be really, really low and the Lions have been absolutely shredded through the air this year. I like a stack with him and Kevin White as a high risk-high reward play in tournaments.
Matt Ryan - He's here because the high Vegas total for this game leads me to believe that the Falcons are going to score, and Carolina is giving up only 3.4 yards/carry this year, 6th in the NFL. I think ATL gets something going here, perhaps in garbage time. Heck, the 49ers put up 27 on Carolina in Carolina.
Running Backs
DeMarco Murray - Just wanted to let you know Murray is averaging 6 yards/carry to go with 17 receptions in three games. His rushing volume hasn't been huge, but he's got a high floor and I think he'll have low ownership this week thanks in part to Melvin Gordon and Bell's return. If he gets 20 carries to go with his 5 or 6 catches, he could be in line for a huge day.
Carlos Hyde - He's another guy with an ownership % that will be super low. For some reason nobody has noticed his production through 3 weeks. He's in line for 20 carries every week and has been catching a couple passes every game this year. San Francisco runs the most plays per game in the NFL and for them to be successful, it has to go through Hyde. He's a top 7 DFS running back this year, but is around 30 in price tag.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones - Same reasons as Matt Ryan is in here. The consensus has been this week to skip playing your Atlanta Falcons, so a big Julio week can really pay dividends in a tournament format. His targets are down this year, but with Sanu out and Atlanta having trouble running the ball, I could see a 15+ target game for Jones this week.
Tavon Austin - His target share is a monstrous 32% which means his stats should probably be better than they are. He's obviously a home run hitter and can win you a tournament if you happen to play him in one of his 2 TD games that he puts together twice every year. If I'm using him, it's in very few lineups with the knowledge that he's the ultimate boom-or-bust. But, if he booms, you'll be the only one that has him.
Steve Smith Sr. - Low ownership %. Huge target share. The big concern is that despite being quite bad the first two weeks of the season, the Raiders back end was great last week and has Pro Football Focus's highest rated CB in David Amerson. There's definite risk here, but there could be a big reward.
Kevin White - He'll be line up against Nevin Lawson who is 90-something in coverage among CBs. So, he's the worst 3rd cornerback in the NFL, essentially, and he'll be shadowing White this week. White has 27 targets this year, including 14 last week, and against weaker competition like Lawson, he could be in for his breakout week.
John Brown - I just dearly love John Brown and want to see him be great again. Make John Brown Great Again! That's my official slogan for the week. His snap count has increased every game this year as he eases back from his preseason injuries. Michael Floyd's injury means Brown is in line for more targets and frankly I just want to see him burn somebody deep again. And the Rams do have a good defense, but it's because they have a great front 7. The Cardinals will get a few deep shots out there. Here's hoping John Brown gets one. Make John Brown Great Again.
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate - I'll be honest, I'm probably more comfortable using the above listed Tight Ends for tournaments as well, because if they miss it won't kill me. I think Brate will be low-owned, because of pretty much that reason, and people will want to see that his 2 TD game wasn't a fluke. Brate had ten targets last week, so even if he doesn't score 2 TDs again, he has a good shot to improve on his 5 receptions. He's priced as low as you can go too.
Kyle Rudolph - Rudolph has quietly been a target monster this year and I just wanted to give him some shine. He has 26 targets in three games, but his catch % is lower than his career average currently. If he does something similar to what he did last week, he could be a steal.
D/ST
New York Jets - The Jets blitz a ton and stop the run. If they can keep Seattle's run game down, which I think they can, then they can get after Russell Wilson, who is dealing with a knee injury and has been significantly less mobile because of it. It's a 1:00 start in New York, so it isn't unreasonable to think the Seattle offense is a bit sluggish. And, I like good teams that just got tee'd off on the week prior like the Jets jut did.
Jacksonville - Total hunch. Division game at home. They need a win. I think Andrew Luck turns it over a few times and the Jags get home on some sacks while only give up 20 or so points. Total risk/reward here.
No comments:
Post a Comment