A second straight 3-4 week means we are pretty close to no longer playing with house money, people.
It’s time to sack up and start picking winners again, which I thought was going to be really easy after going 6-1 in Week 1, but apparently Vegas knows what it’s doing.
Seriously, I always thought that if I had the guts (and up-front money) that I could make a pretty good side living off of betting on games. Clearly I’m not the only one who has had that idea, and while some manage to do OK, the buildings in Vegas aren’t abandoned yet, so most who had that thought failed.
Now that I’ve whined about how hard this is, here are more picks.
Wisconsin at Michigan State (-5)
These two have played some classics in recent years, and I expect this one will be fun, too. Wisconsin’s defense is much better than Notre Dame’s (which could be said about most any defense in the country. In fact, the pass rush robots Notre Dame practices with would be better than its current defense, and they don’t have arms). MSU’s offense is much better than LSU’s (I don’t know if LSU has robots, but I could use a very similar parenthetical here). So expect things on that side of the ball to meet in the middle. The difference here will be MSU’s defense and Wisconsin’s inability to take advantage of its weaknesses. Five is a tough number, but give me the Spartans by a TD. Pick: MSU
To Fade or Not to Fade: Hi, Wil here. I got jealous of Paul getting to do all of the college football picks so I forced my way into his work. Here I’ll give you some of my thoughts and whether or not I agree with Paul, or if I would fade his pick. Being the resident MSU expert in this duo, I feel I can contribute confidently on this pick. I have ZERO clue what MSU is. Good start, right? Let’s try to chronicle some things we do know. MSU wants to run the ball and can. Don’t let the points LSU didn’t score fool you, Leonard Fournette was productive. Akron even ran the ball well despite losing 54-10. So I think MSU can dictate the game when they’re on offense. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin is starting a redshirt Freshman and despite his success against Georgia State, well, MSU is not Georgia State. I think this line is where it’s at because Vegas doesn’t know quite what to do with MSU yet. I see this as a two score game, given Wisconsin’s injuries at RB and unproven passing game. Pick: Not to Fade
Georgia at Ole Miss (-6.5)
Somehow, Georgia’s 3-0 record is worse than Ole Miss’ 1-2 record. That makes sense, believe me. The Georgia offense, even with Nick Chubb back, is not great, and the Ole Miss defense is fast and better than its numbers would suggest. I think this could get ugly. Pick: Ole Miss
To Fade or Not to Fade: When a top 12 team is getting a touchdown against the 23rd ranked team, you lay those points. Don’t be fooled by the records, Ole Miss is significantly better than Georgia. This is a sucker line and Georgia is a sucker bet. Pick: Not to Fade.
Penn State at Michigan (-18.5)
A three TD spread in a conference game against a team with a winning record seems like a lot. But I really don’t see Penn State hanging around in this one. Not even a little bit. Michigan’s defense is going to swallow the Nittany Lions, and its offense is better than Pitt’s, which dropped 42 on Penn State. Pick: Michigan.
To Fade or Not to Fade: This line tells us a few things. Vegas really likes Michigan and Vegas knows what the public thinks of Penn State. The public is wrong more than they’re right. They didn’t build towers in the desert for nothing. Pick: To Fade.
Louisville (-27.5) at Marshall
Marshall just lost, at home, by 27 points, against Akron. And now it’s going to stay within four scores of Louisville? No. No no no no no. Lamar Jackson and Louisville could put up 80 in this one if they wanted, and because Bobby Petrino is their coach, they may end up wanting to. Pick: Louisville.
To Fade or Not to Fade: Everything Paul said above is correct and totally logical, which is why he’s wrong. This line should be 42 if you’re just stacking the quality of the two teams up against each other. But coming off a huge win over FSU with the early-season game of the year against Clemson next week and on the road at night against a team that just got bombed by Akron and is playing in the biggest game of its season; sleepwalking doesn’t begin to describe how Louisville will make its way through this game. They win big, but not big enough. Pick: To Fade.
Nebraska (-8) at Northwestern
This line feels weird to me, because Northwestern is bad and Nebraska could be kind of good. But this just seems like a game Pat Fitzgerald ends up ready for. I have nothing to back that up other than a gut feeling, so take this for what it’s worth: I think this game has some crazy-ass ending and is decided by a field goal or less. Pick: Northwestern.
To Fade or Not to Fade: WHOOOOOOOP! WHOOOOOOOP! WHOOOOOOOP! You know what that is? It’s the “That line smells funky” game of the week. Northwestern, the 1-2 team that lost 9-7 to FCS Illinois State and lost to Western Michigan, is only getting a smidge over a touchdown against a top 20 Nebraska team that just Oregon? Does that sound right? No, it doesn’t. Nobody walks into Evanston at night and gets out alive. I’d pick Northwestern outright. Pick: Not To Fade
South Carolina at Kentucky (-2.5)
Kentucky is not good. South Carolina is slightly less bad. I think the Gamecocks win it outright. Please don’t bother watching this game, though, because it will likely make your eyes bleed. Just check the score in the morning, like I will be doing. Pick: South Carolina.
To Fade or Not to Fade: This line suggest that Vegas thinks these two teams are equals in that they are equally terrible. Kentucky got boat-raced by Florida, lost to Southern Miss and is not good, and should, under almost no circumstances, be favored against an SEC team. That should tell you something about South Carolina. Kentucky just scored 62 against a crap New Mexico State, but 62 points is going to build confidence (a cliched analyst would say “momentum”) in a team that needs it. At home, at night . . . I guess Kentucky can cover a field goal. Pick: To Fade
Season record: 12-9
To Fade or Not to Fade 0-0
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