DFS Picks Week 6

Note: The following applies to GPP tournaments.

So this week there are a ton of really great, really expensive options at both QB and WR. As a general guideline this week, the most common method of lineup construction will be to pay up for expensive RBs and expensive QBs, while finding value plays at WR. So, in order to succeed in a tournament, we should try to construct lineups using different thought patters.

Stacks I like this week

Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones Jr. 

So, Marvin Jones posted season lows in targets, receptions and yards last week, after posting what was his worst statline of the season the week prior. A lot of people rostered him after his huge game against Green Bay and he has not come close to returning the value, so I think people will be off him this week. He still has 42 targets in 5 games, and is a good bet to get double digit targets this week. That is because the Lions cannot run the ball and are facing one of the league's best front sevens in Los Angeles. And while the Rams are great up front, they are subpar in the back end. Stafford will throw the ball a ton this week and both players figure to have low ownership as players will choose Brees/Brady/Big Ben/Newton this week and won't be able to afford Jones.

Brock Osweiler and Will Fuller

If you want to use DeAndre Hopkins in this stack instead of Fuller, that's fine, but Fuller will see more snaps away from Indy's top DB Vantae Davis and he's significantly cheaper, returns punts and, oh yeah, might be just as good. Indianapolis stinks on defense--I also love Lamar Miller in this game stacked with the Houston D/ST--ranking 27th in Draftkings points given up to opposing QBs. Fuller is seeing 8 targets a game right now and if he gets that, he could be in for a big day. Brock is throwing the ball just under 40 times a game and is a tremendous value at $5,400. Don't be afraid to use this lineup with Houstons D/ST as well, or stack Lamar Miller with Osweiler as Miller gets all the carries and catches passes.

Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin or Travis Kelce

Oakland gives up the most QB points in Draftkings....so there's that. And Smith is near minimum this week and saving on him will allow you to pay up at WR (I really like all of the receivers in the $7,000 range this week). Smith's rushing hasn't been there yet this year, but he's always a threat to run for 40 and a touchdown, which is huge in DFS. The Raiders also rank last in WR points and 27th in TE points this year and if Smith has a big game, odds are it is going to Maclin or Kelce. Chris Conley is a really cheap flier you could throw into a lineup as well and could pay off huge. I'm not going to write them up, but I also like a game stack with some Raiders players. So you could use Smith, Maclin and Cooper...or Carr, Cooper and Kelce, etc.

Darren Sproles and Eagles D/ST

There is a positive correlation between running backs and defenses on teams that lead in games, which I think will be the case here. Kirk Cousins likes to turn the ball over, as does Matt Jones, so there's always a shot one of those goes to the house. The Redskins also can't stop the run (worst in rB scoring on Draftkings), and Sproles has the most defined roles of any PHI RB and he catches passes which is big in PPR scoring. Spirals could also return a punt for a TD, giving both himself and the eagles D a TD.

Others

I like Brees to a pass catcher as well, and will have a few lineups with that stack, but I like to be on the other side when everybody says something is so. That game will have points, but if it doesn't have 70 points, not loading up on it can pay dividends.

I like Tyrod Taylor to Charles Clay this week as a super value play with some good upside. San Francisco is making the West to East trip with an early kickoff and Tyrod's rushing always gives him a high floor.

SNEAKY STACK OF THE WEEK

So, I won't load up on this, but I've got a feeling about using Arian Foster with the Dolphins D. Big Ben is not nearly the same quarterback on the road as he is at home, throwing for ~280 1.5 TDs and 1 INT per game on the road this year compared to ~315 yards 4 TDs and .67 INTs per game at home. The Steelers are 25th in RB points given up so far and if Arian is healthy (which appears to be the case) he could see around 20 touches as there are no other real options in the backfield. Like I said, I'm not using this stack more than once or twice, but I think it can return really good value.

DOUBLE STACK BABAYYY

If you're playing in a league that includes the Monday Night Football game, then you must use at least one lineup with Carson Palmer, An ARI WR (preferably John Brown) and David Johnson. Carson Palmer and John Brown's prices are laughably low and Monday games always have lower ownership. The Jets are putrid at defending the pass and are hurt. Ignore the idea that passing success might mean they run less, because DJ is heavily involved in the passing game and the Cardinals might score 40. I also don't hate a game stack with a Jet pass catcher, given the garbage time that is likely.

Good players I am avoiding

Ben Roethlisberger 

For the reasons listed above and he's expensive. I'd also like to note here that Antonio Brown is 10K this week and while I still think he can have a good game, I won't own him much at that price with all of the options around 7K.

Ezekiel Elliot

It's a tough ownership to project because he just had a huge week but is in a tough matchup. Green Bay is historically great at stopping the run this year. This won't be a full fade, because he could be a good contrarian play given his talent and O-Line. I'm hoping he has high ownership and doesn't return value.

AJ Green

The best think the Patriots do is identify your best offensive weapon and take it away. Given the lack of other options in the passing game I think Green does get a good amount of targets, but also think he has a tough time doing much with them.

Cam Newton

I think he'll be the most owned QB of the week and that makes me nervous. He's also the most expensive. And he's coming off a concussion. I think he has a good week, but I'm concerned his rushing is down near the goal line. This could really come back to bite me, but I won't own Newton this week and hope he has a 22 point game, good, but not near enough return to make an impact in tournaments.

Matt Ryan and Julio Jones

Playing at Seattle is really, really hard. And the indications are the Jones will be shadowed by Richard Sherman this week. Ryan was a good real life QB in the win against Denver last week, but didn't return his value in DFS.

DART THROWS

Tavon Austin

Forgive the lack of citation (I tried to find it again but couldn't...maybe ESPN Stats and Info) but Detroit is 2nd worst in the NFL in fantasy points given up to slot players. The worst is Tampa Bay and Austin torched them in Week 2. Austin is getting 9 targets/game and could return tremendous value this week.

James White

He has been a lot more involved in the passing game the last two weeks and we all know how much Brady likes to throw the ball to running backs. I think White will see a lot of open space with the focus on other NE pass catchers.

Chris Conley

I mentioned him above, but just wanted to remind you.

Tyler Lockett

The focus for Atlanta's mediocre secondary will be on Baldwin and Graham which could be great for Lockett who is finally healthy again. He's also a weapon in the punt return game, so I like stacking him with Seattle's defense. I try to not get caught up too much in what coaches and beat writers say, but a lot of people have been hyping up Lockett this week.

Colin Kaepernick and Torrey Smith

I grouped them together because if I'm using Kaep, I'm stacking him with Smith, given the deep ball nature of the two. This is a real dart throw because we haven't seen Kapernick be good in a couple years, but his skill set and style of offense seem to be the perfect marriage. We'll see, but if Kaep gets the running going and hits a deep pass to Smith, it could be tremendous value.

Jamaal Charles

He had the bye week to rest after making his debut in a limited role. He's really low priced because nobody really knows what to expect, but his price may never be that low again. It's always great to be a week ahead of the crowd in DFS and this might be the week to buy in on Charles, who, when right, is as good as it gets.