[throat clearing]
[tap tap tap tap]
[Orchestra swells]
DUN DUN DUN DUN . . . DUN-UH DUN-UH
DUN DUN DUN DUN DUH-NUH
DUNNNN DUNNN DUNNN DUNNNNN
DUN DUN DUN DUN DUN DUN
You read that right, football is back! And that means fantasy football is back! Hope you drafted a good team. If not, that's fine. According to an anecdote I agree with and stole from a man much smarter than I, fantasy football success is 25% draft, 25% trades, 25% waiver-transactions, and 25% avoiding major injuries. (Joe Cook said that, click his name and follow him on Twitter. Seriously he's smart and I've convinced him to do more fantasy writing and this shoutout is definitely not a way to pressure him into doing it.)
According to those numbers, and the calendar, you're a long way from fantasy glory and that involves more than decided who on your team to start each week. And we'll get into that, but first, a personal bit.
When attempting to conceive the point of this weekly blog, I struggled. I like fantasy football and I like writing about it. My first job in writing was a weekly fantasy blog for my local newspaper and man, I sucked at that from every aspect. I ripped off Matthew Berry's "Love Hate" in style, used other analysts rankings as a guide and waited until the last minute to submit it to the poor man who had to edit it so my mother could read it and not understand my jokes. And man, I always had bad jokes. And I would consistently try to sneak worse ones into the blog, before they were properly nixed by Paul, the poor man I mentioned earlier.
My goal is to do better than that this time.
And to use less one-line paragraphs.
So, that background taken into account, I didn't want to do a start/sit type of weekly post, because every site with a pulse has someone much more plugged in with a boatload of research and resources at his or her disposal doing just that. I'm not interested in getting into a fistfight with mountains. I couldn't do a daily fantasy thing for the same reasons. I'll quickly meander onto ESPN to check off some more things that they do better than I possibly could.
- Rankings for every kind of league
- Cheat Sheets!
- Draft kits
- Do not draft lists
- Podcasts
- Auction value generator
- Projections
- Mock drafts
- Cheap auction targets
- sleepers
- streaming options for week one
- IDP rankings
- Sportscenter segments
Ok that's probably enough to get the point across. That list and the hundreds of other bits on content on ESPN and the thousands on other websites all provide insights to answer any question you could ever have about fantasy football. So, what does that leave for little old me? One man with a laptop.
Seriously that wasn't rhetorical I'm honestly asking please help me.......
While I've already failed at eliminating one-line paragraphs from my work, I do think I, despite being just a guy, can help you win at fantasy football. That's what all those bits of content are for, clicks notwithstanding. They're to help you win. But they have one fatal flaw. They don't teach you how to be good at fantasy football.
Fantasy football content has exploded in recent years and it all is driven at its most-inner level by the insecurities of you, I and every other fantasy football player. We're all wandering in an unknown world, where money, pride, confidence, and a whole bunch of other stuff hangs on the balance of a few weekly decisions.
And those other bits of content help, they do. They can quell your concerns over starting so-and-so, or maybe they can't. Why is my guy a a starter for Analyst A, but Analyst B has him ranked low? And I saw him on the Do Not Draft list, but I did it anyway, now what do I do, the starting corner on the other team is banged up that should be good for my guy, but what if he isn't and it's all gamesmanship I CAN'T START 0-3 OR I WON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND THEN I'LL HAVE A TATTOO OF ELMO DABBING HELP MEEEEEEEEEEEE.
Point is, there's an overabundance of information out there and I can guarantee that it will cover near every opinion one could possibly have on a certain player. And the ones that aren't covered are stupid things like "Devonta Freeman will be the number one running back in fantasy this year" and then they come true.
Despite all of this unknown we deal with as fantasy football players, there are people who consistently wade through it better than others. Think about your own league. If you've been in a consistent league for a good chunk of time there are probably people you can think of as perennial challengers for the title and people you would kindly describe as annual cellar-dwellers, even though we all know you're not really that kind to him or her.
My goal is to provide you with a weekly column that gives what I think are "winning plays". Some will be week specific, while some will be more forward-looking. Some might be theory. It might include bits and pieces that you would potentially find in one of the above listed content bits. I feel like I'm confusing you. You'll see what I mean.
So, there's the goal. I'd like for you to read this every week and feel confident in the decisions you are making. I'd like to help you get better at fantasy, not tell you who to start or what moves to make. And I'd like to make you laugh, but no promises.
Now, to the content!
(Note: This is all in the event you are playing in a 10-team standard scoring league)
A Week One Bench: I am of the belief that benches in fantasy football are the most mismanaged entities in the game. Too often benches are stocked with players in order of descending rank that aren't good enough to be starters on a weekly basis. TJ Yeldon is owned in 90% of ESPN leagues and is starting in 17%. Legatee Blount is owned 84% and started in 15%. Ameer Abdullah, 88% and 22%. Isaiah Crowell 70% and 7%. There are others, but we'll stick with those examples. These are all players that have a talent/role combination that makes them un-startable in a 10-team standard league. All of these players are in some type of committee, sharing caries at best for an offense that is mediocre at best (Patriots excluded, but starting any non-pass catching Patriot RB is a coin flip at best) Their upside is limited.
Here are some more names. Alfred Morris is owned in just 35% of leagues, Jerick McKinnon 31%, DeAndre Washington 30%, Chris Johnson 20%, Paul Perkins and Robert Kelley 5%. These guys are all backups to pretty clear number one running backs. In the case of the first four, top 12 RBs and the only reason Washington's percentage is that high is because he had a good preseason and is a trendy name as a rookie. These guys are an injury away from a lion's share of carries on good offenses. They are an injury away from being a top 10 RB. They should all be owned in all leagues. But they aren't because, unlike the first group, they offer almost zero value until someone else gets hurt. Well, NFL RBs average 3 missed games per season, so guess what? Somebody is going to get hurt. You might as well own the right backups. All of this is doubly true if you own Elliot, Peterson, D. Johnson, LeVeon Bell etc. And add DeAngelo Williams to the list because once LeVeon Bell is back from suspension Williams ownership % will plummet and he needs to be owned in 100% of leagues.
In conclusion, use your bench spots on lottery tickets that payoff through injury rather than unexpected production. That way, when the inevitable injuries begin to pile up, you won't be fighting on the waiver wire to get the big pickup of the week. The big exception to this stuff is if you want to roster players Brett Favre or Calvin Johnson as a tribute to their greatness. And in the case of Favre, holding out hope The Gunslinger might lace 'em up one last time.
The same thinking doesn't quite work with receivers because ownership percentages for receivers are way higher than for running backs, because there are more receivers with value. The reason for that is because the NFL is setting records for pass attempts every single year. You may have noticed. I hope you have noticed. Frankly, it'd be hard not to notice.
I will say one thing, if you're thinking about starting a rookie wide receiver in week one, I urge you the reconsider. Remember how amazing Odell Beckham was as a rookie in 2014? Maybe the greatest rookie receiver ever right? Go look at his game log for his first few games. Or Amari Cooper. Or Mike Evans. Calvin Johnson. Antonio Brown. Dez. Julio.
Those are honestly the first seven I looked up. You'll notice the trend is a slow start and a better second half. There are outlier games here and there, but generally, even for the all-world talent receivers, it takes a minute to get going. Which makes sense because even for regular folks like you and I, we kind of suck at new jobs until we get to do them for a little bit and sort of figure out what works, what doesn't work, how to make your boss not mad at you, who the office weirdo is, etc. Nobody is the best immediately.
Granted, this year's rookie class isn't getting the most love ever, with Sterling Shepard having the highest ADP, but keep the above in mind. In a week or two or three, the rookie receiving class as a whole will have the lowest stock it is going to have all year. Then, guys will start to have good weeks. If a Corey Coleman, Shepard, Will Fuller, Michael Thomas, Josh Doctson, even guys like Kevin White and Devin Funchess--who are second year players with very little in the way of production--have a week or two of 6-8 targets, 5 catches or so and around 50 yards--mediocre production essentially-- make a move for them. You can probably get them cheaper than the draft pick the other owner used on them. And, yes, you're right, this would have been handy information for you to have before you drafted so I should have done this a few weeks ago. I have no excuses, but kindly ask that you please stop yelling at me.
STEADFAST RULE ALERT: Don't ever ever ever ever use a bench spot on tight ends, defenses or kickers. And only use bench spots on QBs during your bye week or if you stashed Brady. You have your starter. If he stinks or has a bad matchup, you will have options in the free agent pool.
STEADFAST RULE ALERT: DON'T UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE, UNLESS IT'S A TWO QUARTERBACK LEAGUE, ROSTER JAKE CUTLER. SERIOUSLY. DON'T.
But seriously please don't waste your bench spots on TEs you'll never use, D/ST that you should just stream week to week or QBs that you'd never trust to start. Use those valuable roster spots on the things detailed above and odds are your team will be much more set up for success.
Well, that's enough. I'd love to discuss anything further with you or answer any questions you might have, or trade insults if you so choose, so feel free to comment below.
Until next week.
Now, to the content!
(Note: This is all in the event you are playing in a 10-team standard scoring league)
A Week One Bench: I am of the belief that benches in fantasy football are the most mismanaged entities in the game. Too often benches are stocked with players in order of descending rank that aren't good enough to be starters on a weekly basis. TJ Yeldon is owned in 90% of ESPN leagues and is starting in 17%. Legatee Blount is owned 84% and started in 15%. Ameer Abdullah, 88% and 22%. Isaiah Crowell 70% and 7%. There are others, but we'll stick with those examples. These are all players that have a talent/role combination that makes them un-startable in a 10-team standard league. All of these players are in some type of committee, sharing caries at best for an offense that is mediocre at best (Patriots excluded, but starting any non-pass catching Patriot RB is a coin flip at best) Their upside is limited.
Here are some more names. Alfred Morris is owned in just 35% of leagues, Jerick McKinnon 31%, DeAndre Washington 30%, Chris Johnson 20%, Paul Perkins and Robert Kelley 5%. These guys are all backups to pretty clear number one running backs. In the case of the first four, top 12 RBs and the only reason Washington's percentage is that high is because he had a good preseason and is a trendy name as a rookie. These guys are an injury away from a lion's share of carries on good offenses. They are an injury away from being a top 10 RB. They should all be owned in all leagues. But they aren't because, unlike the first group, they offer almost zero value until someone else gets hurt. Well, NFL RBs average 3 missed games per season, so guess what? Somebody is going to get hurt. You might as well own the right backups. All of this is doubly true if you own Elliot, Peterson, D. Johnson, LeVeon Bell etc. And add DeAngelo Williams to the list because once LeVeon Bell is back from suspension Williams ownership % will plummet and he needs to be owned in 100% of leagues.
In conclusion, use your bench spots on lottery tickets that payoff through injury rather than unexpected production. That way, when the inevitable injuries begin to pile up, you won't be fighting on the waiver wire to get the big pickup of the week. The big exception to this stuff is if you want to roster players Brett Favre or Calvin Johnson as a tribute to their greatness. And in the case of Favre, holding out hope The Gunslinger might lace 'em up one last time.
The same thinking doesn't quite work with receivers because ownership percentages for receivers are way higher than for running backs, because there are more receivers with value. The reason for that is because the NFL is setting records for pass attempts every single year. You may have noticed. I hope you have noticed. Frankly, it'd be hard not to notice.
I will say one thing, if you're thinking about starting a rookie wide receiver in week one, I urge you the reconsider. Remember how amazing Odell Beckham was as a rookie in 2014? Maybe the greatest rookie receiver ever right? Go look at his game log for his first few games. Or Amari Cooper. Or Mike Evans. Calvin Johnson. Antonio Brown. Dez. Julio.
Those are honestly the first seven I looked up. You'll notice the trend is a slow start and a better second half. There are outlier games here and there, but generally, even for the all-world talent receivers, it takes a minute to get going. Which makes sense because even for regular folks like you and I, we kind of suck at new jobs until we get to do them for a little bit and sort of figure out what works, what doesn't work, how to make your boss not mad at you, who the office weirdo is, etc. Nobody is the best immediately.
Granted, this year's rookie class isn't getting the most love ever, with Sterling Shepard having the highest ADP, but keep the above in mind. In a week or two or three, the rookie receiving class as a whole will have the lowest stock it is going to have all year. Then, guys will start to have good weeks. If a Corey Coleman, Shepard, Will Fuller, Michael Thomas, Josh Doctson, even guys like Kevin White and Devin Funchess--who are second year players with very little in the way of production--have a week or two of 6-8 targets, 5 catches or so and around 50 yards--mediocre production essentially-- make a move for them. You can probably get them cheaper than the draft pick the other owner used on them. And, yes, you're right, this would have been handy information for you to have before you drafted so I should have done this a few weeks ago. I have no excuses, but kindly ask that you please stop yelling at me.
STEADFAST RULE ALERT: Don't ever ever ever ever use a bench spot on tight ends, defenses or kickers. And only use bench spots on QBs during your bye week or if you stashed Brady. You have your starter. If he stinks or has a bad matchup, you will have options in the free agent pool.
STEADFAST RULE ALERT: DON'T UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE, UNLESS IT'S A TWO QUARTERBACK LEAGUE, ROSTER JAKE CUTLER. SERIOUSLY. DON'T.
But seriously please don't waste your bench spots on TEs you'll never use, D/ST that you should just stream week to week or QBs that you'd never trust to start. Use those valuable roster spots on the things detailed above and odds are your team will be much more set up for success.
Well, that's enough. I'd love to discuss anything further with you or answer any questions you might have, or trade insults if you so choose, so feel free to comment below.
Until next week.
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